The Rapid Support Forces Advance Toward Al-Obeid (Al-Bayda)

Events in Sudan are accelerating amid deadly battles and strategic maneuvers by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as Hemedti. After their takeover of El Fasher on October 26, 2025, the RSF is now shifting toward central and eastern Sudan, with its eyes set on the strategic city of Al-Obeid (also known as Al-Bayda) — the capital of North Kordofan State. The move signals an attempt to widen control, isolate key regions, and cut the army’s supply routes and economic lifelines.

What Exactly Is Happening in Al-Obeid? (Facts and Figures) • In recent days, local and international reports confirmed that RSF forces are preparing for a full assault on Al-Obeid, with the militia urging residents of certain neighborhoods to evacuate through so-called “safe corridors” — a chilling warning, given how similar “corridors” in Darfur turned into deadly traps. • The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have announced several counterattacks, claiming to have repelled RSF offensives west of Al-Obeid — in areas like Al-Ayyara and Um Sumayma — but the situation remains fragile, with intermittent drone and artillery bombardments reported. • The humanitarian situation is deteriorating rapidly. After the fall of El Fasher, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported over 36,000 new displacements. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the broader conflict has displaced more than 11.7 million people inside and outside Sudan, with an urgent humanitarian funding need of $4.2 billion for 2025.

Key Figures and Field Alignments • Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) — Commander of the RSF and former leader of the Janjaweed militias. His rise from a Darfuri warlord to one of Sudan’s most powerful men marks the RSF’s evolution into a state-within-a-state. • Field Alliances: In the Kordofan and Darfur regions, the RSF has reportedly formed temporary alliances with rebel factions, including a wing of the SPLM-N led by Abdelaziz al-Hilu, further complicating the conflict. • Government/Army stance: The official Sudanese army denounces the RSF’s campaign as an “invasion” and calls on the international community to stop the flow of weapons and funding to the group. Despite limited resources, it is struggling to maintain its foothold across multiple fronts.

The Toll: Human Losses and Documented Crimes • Death Toll: Since the war began in April 2023, various reports estimate tens of thousands killed — with some citing figures exceeding 40,000 deaths, though the true number is likely much higher. • Crimes and Abuses: Reports by Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and the UN Human Rights Office document summary executions, systematic rape, targeted ethnic cleansing, looting, and forced displacement — particularly against non-Arab communities like the Fur, Masalit, and Zaghawa in Darfur. These atrocities, in many cases, amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity.

The UAE Connection: Gold, Funding, and Geopolitical Ambitions • Accusations and Investigations: Several international investigations have accused the United Arab Emirates (UAE) of providing logistical, financial, and possibly military support to the RSF, including through air transport, re-exported weapons, and the gold trade. While the UAE denies direct involvement, the Sudanese government filed a case against Abu Dhabi at the International Court of Justice in March 2025, accusing it of aiding war crimes and systematic repression — a case still under review. • Gold and Funding: According to Reuters and other outlets, networks exporting Sudanese gold through Gulf markets, including the UAE, have directly financed the RSF’s operations. In early October 2025, restrictions on flights between Port Sudan and Dubai reportedly disrupted the gold market, causing a spike in exchange rates and highlighting how closely economic flows are tied to the war’s machinery.

Why Al-Obeid Matters Strategically

Controlling Al-Obeid, located at Sudan’s geographic center, would give the RSF command over critical east-west trade and supply routes, potentially isolating the eastern regions from the west and tightening their grip on the country’s economic arteries. Military analysts warn that such a shift would fundamentally alter the balance of power, making any national political settlement far more difficult.

What Must Be Done Now — A Human and Legal Perspective • Cut the flow of arms and money: The international community must impose real, enforceable sanctions on states or entities found to be supplying weapons or financing armed groups in Sudan. Reports from Amnesty International and HRW provide concrete evidence of arms embargo violations that demand immediate action. • Protect civilians: Open monitored humanitarian corridors, deliver food and medical aid under UN supervision, and fund emergency relief operations. OCHA has requested hundreds of millions to address urgent civilian needs. • Ensure accountability: Cases of sexual violence, mass killings, and ethnically motivated attacks require independent investigations and referrals to international courts — otherwise, impunity will only perpetuate further atrocities.

A Human Plea, Not Just a Political Statement

When we read these numbers — tens of thousands killed, millions displaced — we must remember they represent lives, families, and futures erased. The fall of El Fasher on October 26, 2025, and the imminent threat to Al-Obeid are not mere coordinates on a map; they are chapters of a collapsing nation and a humanitarian nightmare unfolding in real time.

The question is not rhetorical anymore: How long will the international community remain silent as weapons flow, gold is looted, and warlords build empires on human suffering?

This silence is complicity. The time for statements is over — what is needed now is action: halt the funding, stop the arms, and bring the perpetrators to justice.