A scene showing an Israeli drone flying over the skies of the city of Tyre in southern Lebanon.

It is clear that Netanyahu waged this war on us through intelligence. He had in his hands a detailed security file exposing Hezbollah’s structure and operations—vertically and horizontally. Based on that, he directed wide-scale strikes, assassinated commanders, and destroyed critical capabilities. These blows were sufficient to deny the Resistance the use of most of its heavy capabilities, disabling years of prepared operational plans—from Radwan units to aerial and missile forces.

All this happened through intelligence means alone. Without such a breach, Netanyahu would never have dared to launch this war against a massive arsenal that could have destroyed neighborhoods in Tel Aviv and fought Israel’s ground divisions in the Galilee!

What Now?

The balance of deterrence has shifted, and the balance of power now tilts in Israel’s favor. Israel exploits this daily—through air raids, assassinations, occupation measures, and drone incursions—to keep Hezbollah under continuous fire pressure.

Then—and here we begin to prepare the answer—the threat of renewed war has become a stick Netanyahu wields daily before the Americans, aiming to disarm the Resistance. But the Resistance remains firm: “That is the devil’s dream in paradise.”

The Result

The Resistance had been caught in a tight intelligence ambush before the war—without realizing it. From Netanyahu’s perspective, the scene was enticing: a Resistance whose military, security, and leadership units were exposed by 80–90% to the enemy’s view!

Today, however—putting aside talk of reconstruction—at the very least, the effects of that security ambush have largely ended, or at least its scope has significantly decreased. Using the same analogy, not all Resistance units are now within full enemy visibility, due to changes in structure, leadership shifts, and the creation of entirely new modes of resistance work.

Will Israel Launch a New War?

Based on the above, the answer seems unlikely—despite all the inflated threats forming part of a coordinated media campaign. Israel currently finds the present situation advantageous: it can keep exhausting the Resistance and maintaining it under pressure without the risks of an open war.

Yet this does not completely rule out war, especially with a figure like Netanyahu, backed by a hawkish American lobby eager to keep the Middle East simmering on the edge of conflict—or with escalating daily strikes as electoral deadlines approach inside both Israel and Lebanon.

Conclusion

We were once in a tight, near-perfect ambush—its effects have now largely ended. We have entered an unequal equation that currently favors the enemy. However, time and circumstance may change that balance—especially as the global war landscape grows larger and more complex, possibly driving everyone into an entirely new reality.

(By Hassan Hamza, journalist at Al-Manar)