The Horn of Africa is approaching another dangerous turning point.
Fighting in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region has undermined the 2022 peace agreement, while tensions between Addis Ababa and Asmara threaten to transform an internal conflict into a regional confrontation.
Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of sending troops across its border. Eritrea rejects the accusations and warns that Ethiopia is preparing the justification for a wider war. Neither side’s central allegations have been independently established.
Human Rights Watch has received reports of civilians killed and injured by shelling, alongside the closure of health facilities. The United States is urging both governments to de-escalate.
STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT: This confrontation cannot be separated from Ethiopia’s longstanding ambition to secure access to the Red Sea.
Landlocked since Eritrea gained independence in 1993, Ethiopia considers maritime access an increasingly important economic and strategic objective.
But a military confrontation over territorial sovereignty could destabilize the entire Horn of Africa, complicating trade routes and drawing neighboring governments into an already volatile security environment.
The previous Tigray war caused hundreds of thousands of deaths. Another war would be a catastrophe for civilians who have barely begun rebuilding their lives.