Ali Al Zaidi, the UAE, and the Fragility of Iraq’s Sovereignty

Iraq’s new political phase under Prime Minister Ali Al Zaidi is already raising questions about how much room Baghdad really has to act independently. Al Zaidi entered office as a political newcomer, with reporting describing him as a businessman and outsider who lacks prior government experience, while also being thrust into a deadlocked political environment shaped by pressure from regional and international powers.

That inexperience matters. A leader who has never held executive office is more exposed to the influence of entrenched parties, foreign patrons, and powerful regional actors that know how to shape Iraq’s internal balance. In Al Zaidi’s case, that concern is sharpened by the UAE’s early and public effort to build a direct relationship with him, including congratulatory calls from senior Emirati leaders immediately after his nomination.

The UAE’s messaging has been carefully framed in terms of stability, prosperity, and support for Iraq’s progress, but this language also reveals a wider geopolitical agenda. Reuters has reported that Gulf states, including the UAE, have been working to deepen investment and political ties in Iraq as part of a broader effort to expand Arab influence and counter Tehran’s dominance in the country. In that context, the relationship is not simply diplomatic courtesy; it is part of a regional competition over who shapes Iraq’s future.

This is why the sovereignty question matters. Iraq’s sovereignty is not threatened only by overt military intervention; it can also be weakened by elite capture, economic dependency, and the rise of leaders who are too inexperienced to resist external pressure. Al Zaidi’s partial cabinet, continuing deadlock over key ministries, and the broader struggle between Washington, Tehran, and Gulf capitals all suggest a government that is still vulnerable to outside leverage.

The UAE is not acting alone, nor is it necessarily behaving in an openly hostile way. But its visible embrace of a politically inexperienced Iraqi prime minister should be read as a strategic move, one that seeks influence through access, investment, and diplomatic proximity rather than confrontation. For Iraq, the danger is not only foreign friendship. It is the possibility that friendship becomes a channel for shaping sovereign decisions from outside Baghdad.