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UCLA study raises new concernsTHE DIPLOMATChina, Japan, and the Memory Security DilemmaBRASIL WIREIn Offering Brazil’s Future to the US, Flávio Bolsonaro Endangers our Sovereignty and Democracy
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“America and Lebanon: The Struggle of Identity and the Shiite State”

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“America and Lebanon: The Struggle of Identity and the Shiite State”

By Naji Ali Amhaz

Historical Context and Previous Predictions

Sequence of Predictions the Author Claims to Have Made:

- 2018: Predicted the demise of two states (Palestine and Lebanon)

- 2019 Article about transforming Lebanon into North and South Korea through Republican-Democratic convergence

- 2021: Connected Shiites and Maronites to the causes of Lebanon’s demise, referencing the Lebanese flag and Talmudic narrative

- 2022: Predicted a ten-year war and withdrawal of American personnel to Lebanon

Practical American Strategy

Embassy Comparison:

- Iraq: Largest American embassy (amid a Shiite-Sunni society protecting it)

- Lebanon: Future second-largest embassy (Trump will personally inaugurate it after weakening Hezbollah)

Required Geographical Model:

- Historic Mount Lebanon with the largest American embassy

- Airport, port, and active economic movement

- Oil and gas wealth

- Proximity to Israel and Cyprus, overlooking Syria

- Supportive sect and quiet, beautiful green spaces

Proposed Partition Scenario

New Sectarian Distribution:

- Tripoli: Transition to Ahmad al-Sharaa’s rule (New Syria) with Syrian refugees

- Shiites: Separate state similar to Hamas rule in Gaza, with Iranian supplies via sea or airdrops

- Christians: Accommodation of 200,000 additional Christians in Mount Lebanon (which absorbed 300,000 Lebanese displaced and an equal number of Syrians)

- Druze: Already counted within the “American complex”

American Operating Mechanism

“Organized Disappearance” Model:

- Syria: One million soldiers and security personnel disappeared instantly without casualties (99% were not wounded)

- Iraq: Same scenario during Baghdad’s occupation

- Lebanon: Required “ disappearance” of resistance and factions in the same manner

But the Lebanese Difference:

- Presence of complex “elite”: every Lebanese is an “octopus” extending internally and externally

- This complexity forms the fundamental challenge to the American plan

Graduated Negotiation Offers

First Phase - Financial Offers:

- Billions of dollars in exchange for abandoning weapons

- Generous financial incentives for Hezbollah

Second Phase - Political Offers:

- Expanding Shiite influence within the Lebanese state

- High-ranking position with guarantees for Shiites

- Lower financial amount than the first offer

Third Phase - Military Pressure:

- Inevitable battles in case of continued rejection

- Emergence of a Shiite entity that America won’t oppose

- Placing the entity under suspicion regarding survival capabilities

Iran’s Continuing Role

Iran’s Strategic Mission:

- Blocking Afghan-Pakistani extremist flow toward the Arab world

- Forming a natural human and ideological barrier

- Preventing expansion threatening Turkey and Europe

The Iraqi Model:

- Iran succeeded in controlling its Iraqi allies in direct contact with American presence

- Same mechanism will apply to Lebanese allies

Challenges Facing Each Sect

Warning to Northern Sunnis:

- Joining Syria means mandatory conscription

- Living and education system similar to what the Syrian people experience

The Inevitable Shiite Scenario:

- Even with surrendering all weapons, a massacre will occur (like the Syrian coast model)

- Rising Shiite voices demanding autonomous rule

- America “pushes” Shiites toward this direction through events

Disarming and Dismantling Ideology

The Dual Objective:

- Not just disarming, but dismantling anti-American ideology

- Even surrendering “kitchen knives” while remaining opposed means being pushed toward separation

- America demands “miracles” that the state cannot achieve

New American Philosophy

Concept of State:

- States are not national memory, but investment territories

- Even in America: collapsed states are asked to secede

- No shame in dividing unprofitable entities

Final Outcome

Two Options with No Third:

1⃣ Complete Integration: Total neutrality, abandoning resistance against Israel, resolving issues diplomatically, American management of oil and gas

2⃣ Armed redeployment in specific areas that become landmarks of the Shiite state

The author asserts that America knows what it wants, and the question is: Do the Lebanese know what they want?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

“America and Lebanon: The Struggle of Identity and the Shiite State” | The Observer