“America and Lebanon: The Struggle of Identity and the Shiite State”
By Naji Ali Amhaz
Historical Context and Previous Predictions
Sequence of Predictions the Author Claims to Have Made:
- 2018: Predicted the demise of two states (Palestine and Lebanon) - 2019 Article about transforming Lebanon into North and South Korea through Republican-Democratic convergence - 2021: Connected Shiites and Maronites to the causes of Lebanon’s demise, referencing the Lebanese flag and Talmudic narrative - 2022: Predicted a ten-year war and withdrawal of American personnel to Lebanon
Practical American Strategy
Embassy Comparison:
- Iraq: Largest American embassy (amid a Shiite-Sunni society protecting it) - Lebanon: Future second-largest embassy (Trump will personally inaugurate it after weakening Hezbollah)
Required Geographical Model:
- Historic Mount Lebanon with the largest American embassy - Airport, port, and active economic movement - Oil and gas wealth - Proximity to Israel and Cyprus, overlooking Syria - Supportive sect and quiet, beautiful green spaces
Proposed Partition Scenario
New Sectarian Distribution:
- Tripoli: Transition to Ahmad al-Sharaa’s rule (New Syria) with Syrian refugees - Shiites: Separate state similar to Hamas rule in Gaza, with Iranian supplies via sea or airdrops - Christians: Accommodation of 200,000 additional Christians in Mount Lebanon (which absorbed 300,000 Lebanese displaced and an equal number of Syrians) - Druze: Already counted within the “American complex”
American Operating Mechanism
“Organized Disappearance” Model:
- Syria: One million soldiers and security personnel disappeared instantly without casualties (99% were not wounded) - Iraq: Same scenario during Baghdad’s occupation - Lebanon: Required “ disappearance” of resistance and factions in the same manner
But the Lebanese Difference:
- Presence of complex “elite”: every Lebanese is an “octopus” extending internally and externally - This complexity forms the fundamental challenge to the American plan
Graduated Negotiation Offers
First Phase - Financial Offers:
- Billions of dollars in exchange for abandoning weapons - Generous financial incentives for Hezbollah
Second Phase - Political Offers:
- Expanding Shiite influence within the Lebanese state - High-ranking position with guarantees for Shiites - Lower financial amount than the first offer
Third Phase - Military Pressure:
- Inevitable battles in case of continued rejection - Emergence of a Shiite entity that America won’t oppose - Placing the entity under suspicion regarding survival capabilities
Iran’s Continuing Role
Iran’s Strategic Mission:
- Blocking Afghan-Pakistani extremist flow toward the Arab world - Forming a natural human and ideological barrier - Preventing expansion threatening Turkey and Europe
The Iraqi Model:
- Iran succeeded in controlling its Iraqi allies in direct contact with American presence - Same mechanism will apply to Lebanese allies
Challenges Facing Each Sect
Warning to Northern Sunnis:
- Joining Syria means mandatory conscription - Living and education system similar to what the Syrian people experience
The Inevitable Shiite Scenario:
- Even with surrendering all weapons, a massacre will occur (like the Syrian coast model) - Rising Shiite voices demanding autonomous rule - America “pushes” Shiites toward this direction through events
Disarming and Dismantling Ideology
The Dual Objective:
- Not just disarming, but dismantling anti-American ideology - Even surrendering “kitchen knives” while remaining opposed means being pushed toward separation - America demands “miracles” that the state cannot achieve
New American Philosophy
Concept of State:
- States are not national memory, but investment territories - Even in America: collapsed states are asked to secede - No shame in dividing unprofitable entities
Final Outcome
Two Options with No Third:
1⃣ Complete Integration: Total neutrality, abandoning resistance against Israel, resolving issues diplomatically, American management of oil and gas
2⃣ Armed redeployment in specific areas that become landmarks of the Shiite state
The author asserts that America knows what it wants, and the question is: Do the Lebanese know what they want? 🔵