Reading the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Update — August 26, 2026

4. 🇮🇷 The Iranian Obstacle

• Iran has shown less flexibility in recent weeks regarding the disarmament of the militias—the PMF brigades.

• Iranian officials, including Quds Force Commander Ismail Qaani and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, have reportedly sought to persuade the Iraqi government to postpone the September 30 deadline for placing weapons under state control.

• Iran has proposed alternatives, such as transferring heavy weapons to Iran or placing them under the PMF itself, but opposes any measure that would weaken its influence over the PMF structure.

5. ⚠️ The report’s Assessment of Opportunities and Risks

The opportunity: If al-Zaidi succeeds in appointing professional officers—particularly those aligned with the United States—and implementing the proposed [U.S.-backed] reforms, Washington could achieve its objective of weakening the militias within the PMF and reducing Iranian influence.

The risk: Iranian, Iraqi, and parliamentary resistance could derail the entire project, as reportedly happened during the previous administration of Haider al-Abadi.

• The report cites former Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s experience in reforming the Iraqi Intelligence Service as evidence that institutional reform is possible when there is sufficient political will and professional personnel—particularly personnel with pro-U.S. orientations.

Final Assessment

Al-Zaidi is walking a political tightrope.

He is attempting to exploit U.S. pressure to restructure the PMF in a way that strengthens his own authority, while simultaneously facing joint Iranian-Iraqi opposition both inside and outside parliament.

His success will depend on his ability to impose the proposed reforms and appoint professional cadres with pro-U.S. orientations.

Failure, however, could mean the continued dominance of armed factions—and the further strengthening of the PMF—over Iraq’s security landscape, with significant consequences for domestic stability and Baghdad’s relationship with Washington.