Brazil is voting today, October 4, in one of Latin America’s most consequential elections. Polls remain open until 17:00 Brasília time, so there is no official national result yet. If nobody wins more than 50% of valid votes, the runoff will be held on October 25. Nearly 159 million Brazilians are eligible to vote.
The final polling shows an extremely tight race. Datafolha had Lula 45% vs Flávio Bolsonaro 42% of valid votes, while Quaest showed 46% vs 45%. The UOL polling aggregate has Lula at 40.5% and Flávio at 37.2% in the first round — but in a hypothetical runoff it is virtually dead even, 45.1% vs 44.8%.
The Observer’s assessment: Lula is slightly more likely to finish first tonight, but a runoff is the overwhelmingly likely scenario. The final October 25 contest is essentially a toss-up. If forced to choose today, I would still give Lula a very narrow edge, but with low confidence.
Geopolitically, the stakes are enormous. Flávio Bolsonaro is much closer politically to Donald Trump and has advocated stronger ties with the United States and Israel. His campaign has also signaled resistance to integrating Brazil’s Pix payment system with non-Western financial networks.
A Bolsonaro victory would therefore push Brazil toward the emerging pro-Washington conservative bloc in Latin America. But I would not expect Brazil simply to abandon BRICS: more likely, it would remain a member while reducing its political commitment to BRICS-led multipolar initiatives.
If Lula wins, expect Brazil to continue pursuing strategic autonomy, BRICS cooperation and stronger Global South relations, while resisting pressure to fall completely into either the American or Chinese camp. Lula’s Brazil is better described as multipolar and sovereigntist than genuinely “revolutionary.”
This election could decide whether Latin America’s largest country slows the region’s rightward, pro-U.S. shift — or becomes its biggest prize.