“Define Your Leverage for Us!”

Arab futures studies scholar Walid Abdel Hay addressed an appeal to Lebanese President Joseph Aoun via his Facebook page, criticizing what he described as the authority’s increasingly concessionary approach in the direct negotiations file with Israel.

Abdel Hay argued that Israel’s strategic vision is built upon the principle of “subordinating the security of others to serve its own security.” Consequently, he warned that Israel would not grant Lebanon any meaningful concessions unless it first secured long-term control over Lebanon’s security environment.

Addressing the Lebanese president directly, he posed a central question:

“What leverage do you possess to compel Israel to fully withdraw, return the prisoners, and allow displaced persons to return? You have neither horses to offer nor wealth to bargain with. You possess no military leverage. Therefore, tell us: what are your instruments of pressure?”

The Loss of All Leverage Over the Other Side

Mr. President, international negotiations (and you hold a degree in Political Science) are not the art of persuasion, nor are they an academic intellectual exercise. Rather, they are the art of leveraging both hard and soft power variables to maximize gains or minimize losses. The negotiating table is a highly accurate reflection of the balance of power on the ground.

This leads me to ask: What leverage do you possess to compel Israel to fully withdraw, return the prisoners, allow displaced persons to return, and meet other Lebanese demands?

You have neither military power nor meaningful economic influence. Your economy has been hollowed out by poverty and corruption, while your society is fragmented both structurally and functionally. Therefore, please tell us: What are your actual instruments of pressure?

Does the Arab Experience with Agreements with Israel Encourage You to Continue on Your Current Path?

Since its agreement with Israel, Egypt has fallen by more than 76 places in international standing, while dozens of Israeli espionage cells have reportedly been uncovered within its territory.

Syria no longer has clearly recognized and secure international borders; instead, parts of its territory have effectively become a field for Israeli military operations and influence, alongside attempts to reshape its social and demographic structure.

Jordan has seen Israel disregard not only the Hashemite custodianship over holy sites, but also water agreements and the activities of refugee relief agencies. Moreover, Israeli officials have repeatedly undermined Jordanian sovereignty through references to the concept of a “Greater Israel,” frequently displayed by Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Beyond that, there are the Israeli roles alleged in Sudan, Somaliland, instability in the Gulf region, and growing penetration into the Sahel states, with all the resulting implications for the security of the Maghreb countries.