On October 1, Ethiopia expelled Egyptian diplomat Ahmed Moharam Ahmed Soliman, giving him 48 hours to leave. Cairo immediately retaliated by expelling a senior Ethiopian embassy counsellor on the same timetable.
The timing is crucial.
Just days earlier, Ethiopia’s army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula accused Egypt, Eritrea and Sudan of supporting armed groups fighting Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. Addis Ababa presented no public proof of Egyptian military involvement, and Cairo denies interfering in Ethiopia’s internal affairs.
Ethiopia is already facing renewed fighting in Tigray, Amhara and Afar, while relations with Eritrea have collapsed. Addis Ababa expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats, and Eritrea later cut diplomatic ties entirely.
Behind the Egyptian dispute is the long-running battle over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Egypt depends on the Nile for more than 90% of its freshwater and continues to demand a legally binding agreement on GERD’s operation. Ethiopia inaugurated the dam in September 2025 and has signaled plans for more dams.
So the current crisis is really about three linked fronts: the Nile dispute, Ethiopia’s internal conflict, and a widening regional rivalry involving Egypt, Eritrea and Sudan.
Under the Vienna Convention, expelling diplomats is legal. Politically, however, reciprocal expulsions are a serious warning sign when accusations of backing armed groups are already flying.
Latest: Ethiopian federal forces have reportedly retaken Mekelle’s Alula Aba Nega airport, previously seized by Tigrayan forces, showing that Addis Ababa is attempting to regain the initiative militarily even as its diplomatic confrontation with neighboring states deepens.
The danger is no longer simply another argument over the Nile. Ethiopia’s domestic war is becoming entangled with Egypt–Ethiopia rivalry, Eritrea’s hostility toward Addis Ababa and Sudan’s own conflict.
The African Union has urged all sides to avoid further escalation.