Europe is entering a genuinely dangerous phase. Military spending is accelerating, NATO is reinforcing its eastern flank, Germany is hardening critical infrastructure, and governments from Poland to the Baltics increasingly speak as though confrontation with Moscow is no longer an abstract scenario. NATO says these moves are defensive and that it
“will never mount a first attack.”
But several viral claims need separating from what was actually said.
Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski did say intelligence from several sources suggested Russia was preparing
“something big” this year.
He speculated about scenarios ranging from a false-flag operation intended to facilitate Russian mobilisation to pressure around the Baltic region. He did not announce evidence that Poland or Europe was preparing an invasion of Russia.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz, meanwhile, has warned Germany to expect increasing Russian hybrid attacks — cyber operations, drones, sabotage and interference — while Germany strengthens its military posture. That is different from saying Berlin possesses intelligence of an imminent conventional Russian invasion.
Moscow is responding with increasingly explicit deterrence language. On October 1, Putin warned that Russia could use
“all weapons” available
if Russian territory, including Kaliningrad, were directly attacked. NATO publicly answered that it remains a defensive alliance and rejects nuclear intimidation.
Meanwhile, the war inside Ukraine is becoming more dangerous. Ukrainian officials say an intercepted Russian plan envisages a three-stage campaign involving up to 1,000 missiles, drones and bombs against electricity generation, substations and other infrastructure this winter. That document has been reported by major outlets, but its contents remain an Ukrainian intelligence claim rather than an independently verified Russian war plan.
Zelensky has separately alleged that intercepted intelligence shows Putin told commanders in September that restrictions governing earlier air campaigns had effectively been removed. The Kremlin disputes allegations that it deliberately targets civilian infrastructure.
So how close is Europe to attacking Russia?
Based on what is publicly documented today, a deliberate European/NATO first strike against Russia appears unlikely. There is no public evidence of a coordinated European offensive plan, and NATO’s stated doctrine remains collective defence rather than initiating war. Even European officials warning most aggressively about Moscow have recently said they do not see an imminent conventional Russian attack on NATO territory.
The more serious danger is escalation by accumulation: deeper Ukrainian strikes inside Russia, incidents around Kaliningrad or the Baltic, drone incursions, sabotage allegations, expanding NATO deployments and increasingly explicit nuclear threats.
That is where Europe’s current strategy deserves scrutiny. Preparing for defence is rational; allowing every security incident to become another rung on an escalation ladder between nuclear powers is something else entirely.
Europe may not be preparing to march on Moscow — but it is building a military posture in which a single major miscalculation could suddenly make questions that once sounded unthinkable very real.