Parisa Nasrabadi
Reports indicate that the Pentagon is ready to carry out an operation lasting approximately three days against Iran. However, the person responsible for issuing the order to attack has said “no” several times so far and continues to speak about negotiations with Iran within the framework of “coercive diplomacy.”
But the situation is clearer than the vague and contradictory statements currently being made. The available evidence and indications suggest that Trump’s claim that he will postpone any military attack on Iran until after the U.S. midterm elections resembles, more than anything else, a political game and psychological warfare.
The Pentagon has prepared options for a three-day military campaign targeting missile and drone bases, energy infrastructure, and command centers of Iran’s armed forces.
According to claims made by American media outlets, Trump has vetoed five proposals for major military operations against Iran or the Yemeni resistance in recent months. He also reiterated yesterday that no military attack against Iran would take place before the U.S. midterm elections.
White House officials, led by Vice President J.D. Vance, discussed these plans at Camp David last week. Military commanders reportedly announced that they would be ready to act within days if the president changed his position.
American officials reportedly told their Israeli counterparts to keep their armed forces prepared for a possible major attack within the “next three weeks.” Some Israeli sources even suggested that Israel’s October 27 elections could be postponed if an attack occurred.
Postponing the Israeli elections would be highly desirable for Netanyahu.
Negotiations between Iran and the United States have effectively reached a deadlock.
Indirect talks between Tehran and Washington, conducted through intermediaries, remain diplomatically stalled over whether a nuclear agreement should come before other agreements or be concluded at the end of the negotiation process.
Since the beginning of September, Iran has reportedly attacked at least 13 vessels, actions that have been met with a limited American response.
A third U.S. aircraft carrier strike group is expected to arrive in the region by late October, marking the first simultaneous deployment of three American aircraft carriers in the region since 2003.
Based on the available evidence, the risk of a limited but intensive military attack by the United States and Israel against Iran during October 22–26, 2026, with October 24 as the potential focal date, is at its highest level in several months.
🔽 Expected Strategic Objectives of Washington and Tel Aviv
▫️ Achieve a sustained reduction in Iran’s missile and drone capabilities for at least several months.
▫️ Inflict serious damage on the infrastructure required to restart and manufacture centrifuges, while gaining access to stockpiles of enriched uranium.
▫️ Send a deterrent message to the Axis of Resistance while simultaneously strengthening Netanyahu’s domestic political position ahead of the upcoming Israeli elections.
▫️ Strategically weaken Iran to force it into accepting a maximalist agreement at the negotiating table — effectively, surrender.
🔽 Main Triggers for a Military Attack
▫️ Nuclear intelligence: The United States or Israel obtains reliable intelligence identifying the precise locations of highly enriched uranium stockpiles or secret facilities involved in restarting uranium enrichment.
▫️ A high-value strategic target: The United States or Israel identifies an extremely valuable strategic target, particularly the location of Iran’s third Supreme Leader.
▫️ A major triggering event: A significant escalation, such as heavy casualties among American or Israeli forces, serious damage to American or Israeli infrastructure or assets in the region, an unexpected intensification of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, or a sudden surge in oil prices.