26 October 2026 | Strait of Hormuz
The war is threatening more than global oil supplies… it is threatening the food that will eventually reach millions of dinner tables!
According to data from the World Trade Organization (WTO) and AXSMarine, the index measuring fertilizer and fertilizer-related shipments through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed from 2,960 points in January to zero in September and October, based on vessels visible through maritime tracking systems.
What does this mean?
▪️ Declining crop yields: Rising fertilizer costs could force farmers to reduce fertilizer use, threatening agricultural productivity in upcoming growing seasons.
▪️ Higher food prices: Countries heavily dependent on fertilizer imports, particularly poorer nations, could face additional pressure on food prices.
▪️ Global food security at risk: Prolonged supply disruptions could transform a shipping crisis into a long-term threat to global agricultural production and food security.
Geopolitical Analysis:
The real danger is that the consequences of this crisis may not become immediately visible.
Oil prices react to disruptions today. Fertilizer shortages, however, can take months to reveal their full consequences, when crop yields decline and food production becomes more expensive.
This is what makes the situation particularly dangerous: the economic consequences of war may continue unfolding long after the fighting itself has ended.
The world is no longer facing merely an energy crisis… but the growing risk of an agricultural crisis whose consequences could be felt by millions of people worldwide.
Note: The zero reading reflects shipments detected by vessel-tracking systems. It does not necessarily mean that all physical shipments have stopped.