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UCLA study raises new concernsBRASIL WIREIn Offering Brazil’s Future to the US, Flávio Bolsonaro Endangers our Sovereignty and DemocracyTHE GUARDIANTwo Russian men jailed in Angola for terrorism and spyingTHE GUARDIANMoD cancels army training in Kenya over powers to prosecute British soldiersMAIL & GUARDIANThe National Democratic Revolution. How Far Have We Come?THE GUARDIANHealthy diet too expensive for one in three people globally, UN report findsLE MONDE DIPLOMATIQUEJuly: the longer view
MilitaryFeb 201
IranIsrael

Global Market Impact

Global Market Impact

As of February 20, 2026, geopolitical tensions involving the U.S., Iran, and Israel have driven significant volatility in energy and precious metals.

Commodity Performance

• Oil (Brent Crude): Prices rose to a seven-month high, trading between $71 and $72 per barrel. The surge is tied to military buildups in the Persian Gulf and fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

• Gold: The metal has reclaimed the $5,000 per ounce threshold after a period of extreme volatility. It hit an all-time high of $5,595 in late January before stabilizing at current levels as a primary safe-haven asset.

• Silver: Trading in the upper $77 range, also buoyed by regional instability.

Market Drivers

• U.S.-Iran Standoff: Naval deployments and diplomatic friction in Geneva regarding nuclear verification have increased the "geopolitical risk premium."

• Supply Constraints: OPEC+ production cuts, particularly from Russia and Kazakhstan, are tightening the market despite rising non-OPEC output from North America.

• Economic Impact: Analysts warn that prolonged high energy prices may stall anticipated interest rate cuts by central banks due to inflationary pressure.

Forecast Context

While current prices are elevated, the EIA and major banks like J.P. Morgan had previously projected an average Brent price of $58 for 2026, suggesting that the current $70+ range is a direct result of temporary geopolitical shocks rather than long-term demand fundamentals.

Global Market Impact | The Observer