HEZBOLLAH Escalates: "al-asf al-ma’kul" Declared as Regional Conflict Widens

Date: March 13, 2026

Published by:

The Observer | Al-Muraqeb

THE NEWS

Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem delivered a pivotal televised address today, formally announcing the commencement of a new military operation titled "Al-Asf al-Ma’kul" (The Devoured Chaff). Qassem asserted that the group’s "patience has reached its limit" regarding ongoing Israeli violations. He characterized the current phase as an "existential battle" for Lebanese sovereignty, warning Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the resistance is prepared for a long-term war. Qassem cited staggering figures from the Gaza front—260,000 casualties (killed and wounded)—as evidence of the "unprecedented injustice" necessitating Hezbollah’s full-scale intervention.

Background

This escalation follows the collapse of the November 2024 ceasefire, which had been increasingly fragile due to persistent Israeli overflights and Hezbollah’s refusal to withdraw from the Litani River. The regional situation spiraled following a massive U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran on February 28, 2024, which reportedly targeted senior leadership, including the late Supreme Leader. Since March 2, Israel has conducted "Operation Roar of the Lion," striking over 30 branches of Al-Qard al-Hassan and displacing over 800,000 Lebanese civilians. Hezbollah’s formal entry into the war marks the definitive end of the "containment" phase that defined 2025.

Latest Developments

• Military Expansion: The IDF 36th Division has penetrated deeper into southern Lebanon, specifically targeting the Rab El Thalathine and Khiyam sectors.

• Humanitarian Crisis: Lebanon’s Disaster Risk Management Unit reports 634 fatalities and 816,700 displaced since the escalation began on March 2.

• Diplomatic Deadlock: France has requested an emergency UN Security Council meeting; however, Qassem’s speech explicitly rejected "free diplomatic concessions" by the Lebanese government.

• Economic Targeting: Israeli airstrikes continue to focus on Hezbollah’s financial infrastructure, aiming to dismantle the group's socio-economic base in Beirut’s southern suburbs.

Geopolitical Analysis

Qassem’s speech signals a strategic shift from "support strikes" to a total defensive war. By naming the operation "Al-Asf al-Ma’kul," Hezbollah is utilizing Quranic symbolism to project an image of devastating retaliatory power.

• Strategic Objective: To deny the IDF a "buffer zone" south of the Litani and to force a ceasefire on Hezbollah’s terms rather than the state’s.

• Internal Pressure: Qassem’s sharp critique of the Lebanese government indicates a growing rift between the "Resistance" and state institutions over the monopoly of arms.

• Regional Impact: The conflict is no longer localized; it is now the primary front of the broader confrontation between the U.S.-Israeli axis and the regional resistance network.

Axis of Resistance Perspective

The Axis views this development as a necessary "unity of fronts" response to the direct targeting of Iran.

• Iran: Provides the strategic depth and logistical supply lines essential for a protracted conflict.

• Iraqi & Yemeni Factions: Expected to intensify long-range drone and missile strikes to overstretch Israeli air defenses (Iron Dome/David’s Sling).

• The Narrative: The Axis frames this as the "Final Liberation" battle, shifting from defense to a proactive attempt to alter the regional order.

Future Outlook

1. Ground Escalation: High risk of a multi-divisional Israeli push toward the Litani River, leading to high-intensity urban warfare in fortified villages.

2. Targeting Shift: Hezbollah is likely to expand its "fire circle" to include vital Israeli infrastructure (power plants, ports) in Haifa and Tel Aviv.

3. Political Paralysis: Total cessation of domestic political reform in Lebanon as the "war logic" supersedes state governance.