27 October 2026 | Strait of Hormuz – Global Energy Markets
Newly published shipping data offer a clearer picture of how the conflict is reshaping oil exports.
According to Kpler data reported by The Wall Street Journal, the seven-day average of oil flows through the
Strait of Hormuz is approximately:
Current daily flows 9.34 million barrels
Prewar daily flows 17.15 million barrels
That means flows are running at approximately 54% of their prewar level.
Yet the same data indicate that non-Iranian Middle Eastern crude exports averaged 16.7 million barrels per day during October, compared with approximately 16.3 million before the war.
The figures suggest alternative routes and export adjustments are helping offset part of the disruption.
Oil prices nevertheless remain elevated. At 08:37 GMT, Brent traded at approximately $116.85, while US WTI stood near $102.73.
⚖️ Strategic assessment
The crisis is no longer simply about whether Hormuz is open or closed.
It is increasingly about how long producers can maintain exports through alternative infrastructure, at what cost, and under what security risks.
The reported fire near Ras Tanura makes that question more urgent.
Regional diplomacy has not yet produced a verified agreement restoring normal commercial passage through the strait.