Michelle Brohard, a senior geopolitical risk analyst at maritime intelligence giant Kpler, suspects that Gulf exporters may be quietly paying Iran 10–20% of their cargo value in exchange for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Countries heavily dependent on the strait, including Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE, face enormous economic exposure.
Consider the numbers: On an oil shipment worth $100 million, a 10–20% payment would mean $10–20 million potentially flowing to Tehran from a single cargo.
The geopolitical implications are extraordinary. Washington has deployed naval power to protect Gulf energy exports, yet Tehran may still be extracting economic concessions from shipping passing through its strategic backyard.
Meanwhile, higher insurance premiums, tanker charter rates and security costs are eating into Gulf producers’ profits and pushing up global energy prices.
This is the economic dimension of Iran’s asymmetric warfare: turning control over a critical energy chokepoint into financial and geopolitical leverage despite American military superiority.
Important: The 10–20% figure remains an analyst’s hypothesis, not a verified payment rate. No independent evidence confirms that the named Gulf governments are paying these amounts.
The bigger picture: Even without confirmed toll payments, Iran has demonstrated that disrupting a narrow maritime corridor can impose enormous costs on the global economy.