The withdrawal from Iraq is not only American.

On September 29, Italy confirmed that its last troops had left Iraq, ending a 12-year deployment that began with the anti-ISIS campaign in 2014. The move came ahead of the September 30 deadline agreed with Baghdad for ending the US-led coalition’s military mission.

The process had already been underway for months:

Italy withdrew most of its forces by March 2026.

NATO moved its personnel out of Baghdad in March 2026, shifting the advisory mission to Naples.

Germany confirmed on September 11 that the mission was ending at the Iraqi government’s request.

The United States is withdrawing under the same framework.

So this is not simply Europe following Washington out of Iraq — it is the dismantling of the coalition military structure itself.

Why now?

The main reason is that Baghdad requested the end of the foreign military mission and says Iraqi forces are ready to assume greater responsibility.

The framework dates back to September 2024, when Washington and Baghdad agreed on a transition plan.

Is this connected to Europe preparing for war with Russia?

Europe is clearly shifting its military focus back toward its own continent.

NATO now has nine multinational battlegroups on its eastern flank, compared with four before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, while European states are increasing defence spending, ammunition production and air-defence capabilities.

But there is no public evidence that European troops are leaving Iraq specifically to prepare for a war with Russia.

The two trends are happening at the same time, but the direct reason for the Iraqi withdrawal remains Baghdad’s request and the end of the coalition mission.

The consequences for Iraq are significant.

The withdrawal strengthens Iraqi sovereignty after more than two decades of heavy foreign military presence.

But it also removes capabilities the coalition provided, including intelligence, surveillance, logistics, targeting assistance and parts of the air-defence umbrella.

ISIS is far weaker than it was in 2014, but it has not disappeared.

The historical warning is obvious: US forces left Iraq in 2011, and only three years later ISIS captured Mosul.

That does not mean history will repeat itself — Iraqi forces are stronger today — but security vacuums rarely remain empty.

Foreign influence will also continue even without foreign troops:

Washington retains major financial, diplomatic and intelligence influence.

Iran retains deep political, economic and security ties.

Turkey remains heavily involved in northern Iraq.

Europe will continue diplomatic and advisory cooperation.

So October 1 does not mean foreign influence disappears from Iraq.

It means something more important:

the era in which Western influence in Iraq was backed by a permanent Western military presence is coming to an end.

For Baghdad, that is both a victory in sovereignty — and a serious test of whether the Iraqi state can fill the space left behind.