Tel Aviv | Political Assessment
Palestinian journalist Walid Al-Omari, director of Al Jazeera’s Ramallah bureau, has questioned the accuracy of Israeli opinion polls, arguing that they may not fully capture political trends within Israeli society, particularly among younger voters.
What does al-omari Say?
Al-Omari points to a growing trend among segments of younger Israelis toward the hardline nationalist and religious right, arguing that the popularity of figures such as Meir Kahane, Itamar Ben-Gvir, and Bezalel Smotrich warrants close attention when assessing Israel’s political landscape.
He cited the 2022 Knesset election, when final polls projected Netanyahu’s bloc at around 59 seats, while it ultimately won 63 seats.
What About Young Israelis?
Some Israeli studies and surveys indicate a growing tendency among younger Israelis to identify with the political right. However, the frequently cited 73–78% figures require verification of their specific source, sample, and survey year before being treated as a general fact.
An Important Point About Polling
A gap between polling projections and actual election results does not, by itself, establish “systemic bias.” Errors can result from sample size, seat-allocation models, non-response, undecided voters, and changes in voter behavior during the final days of a campaign.
Bottom Line
The more significant indicator is not a single poll, but cumulative trends across multiple elections and social and political studies: the position of younger, religious, and nationalist constituencies within Israel’s political landscape, and the extent to which these shifts translate into greater support for hardline right-wing parties.