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IsraelSyria

Israel’s Assassination Call Against Ahmad al-Sharaa: Contradiction or Controlled Chaos Doctrine?

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Israel’s Assassination Call Against Ahmad al-Sharaa: Contradiction or Controlled Chaos Doctrine?

Factual Summary

Far-right Israeli Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir publicly called for the assassination of Syria’s interim president Ahmad al-Sharaa, labeling him “the head of the snake.”

This comes despite ongoing US-mediated indirect talks between Syria and Israel, aimed at security arrangements and reviving the 1974 disengagement framework.

Since Assad’s fall (Dec 2024), Israel has conducted over 800 airstrikes in Syria to prevent hostile military buildup near the Golan Heights.

Strategic Analysis

At face value, this looks contradictory:

Al-Sharaa is not aligned with the Axis of Resistance and has pursued Western engagement and de-escalation.

But that reading is analytically weak.

Israel’s doctrine is not ideological — it is structural:

1. A weak Syria is preferable to a stable one

State recovery—even under a non-hostile leadership—creates long-term strategic risk.

2. Al-Sharaa is attempting state reconstruction

• Hosting 70+ international delegations

• Targeting illicit war economies

• Rebuilding institutions

That trajectory restores sovereignty.

3. Israel prefers fragmentation over consolidation

Tel Aviv has backed Druze militias and engaged in covert destabilization tactics to limit central authority.

In short:

Israel neither trusts al-Sharaa nor wants a viable Syrian state emerging under him.

Position & Assessment

Ben-Gvir’s statement is not rhetorical noise—it reflects a real strategic current inside Israel:

• One camp favors managed chaos in Syria

• Another supports conditional containment via negotiations

Assassination threats function as leverage—not necessarily imminent policy.

Core objective:

Force Syria into a condition of permanent strategic dependency or instability.

Latest Developments

• Military: Continued Israeli strikes across Syrian territory targeting command centers and infrastructure.

• Diplomatic: Renewed US-backed talks in Paris on security arrangements.

• Israeli stance: Holding Damascus accountable for any cross-border incidents.

• International: Western re-engagement with Syria tied to political conditionality and sanctions frameworks.

Axis of Resistance Perspective

• Iran: Views al-Sharaa as diluting its regional network

• Hezbollah: Concerned about pressure on Damascus to confront it

• Palestinian factions: See Syria-Israel normalization risks as strategic erosion

Yet a key calculation persists:

Even a non-aligned Syrian leadership is preferable to state collapse enabling direct Israeli dominance.

Bottom Line

Israel does not oppose al-Sharaa because he is hostile.

It opposes him because he might eventually succeed.

A functional Syria is the real red line.

#Syria #Israel #AhmadAlSharaa #BenGvir #Golan #Geopolitics #AxisOfResistance #MiddleEast

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Israel’s Assassination Call Against Ahmad al-Sharaa: Contradiction or Controlled Chaos Doctrine? | The Observer