Washington
Israel’s Channel 14 has highlighted polling projections suggesting that Republicans could lose control of both chambers of Congress in today’s midterm elections.
The latest American polling and forecasting models reinforce that possibility. But there is an important distinction: the Democrats are strongly favoured, not yet victorious.
What do the latest numbers show?
According to the final Reuters/Ipsos poll, completed November 2:
• Trump’s approval rating: 32%, close to his record low.
• Congressional voting preference: Democrats 46%, Republicans 38% — an eight-point Democratic advantage.
• Cost of living: 78% of respondents consider it a very important or top election issue.
• Voter enthusiasm: 49% among Democrats, compared with 33% among Republicans.
Nate Silver’s final election model gives Democrats approximately 95% probability of winning the House and 80% probability of winning the Senate.
These are forecasts, not actual seat allocations.
The Senate: Republicans have more seats to defend
Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats, against 47 held by Democrats and independents aligned with them.
Of the 35 Senate seats being contested, 22 are Republican-held and 13 Democratic-held, including two special elections.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure a majority.
Why could Trump lose Congress?
1. Falling popularity: At 32% approval, Trump enters the election facing a deeply unfavourable political environment.
2. Economic pressure: Living costs, inflation concerns and the burden of tariffs are affecting households. For many Americans, the election is being decided at the supermarket checkout rather than through foreign-policy speeches.
3. War fatigue: The confrontation with Iran, continued American involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts and the economic consequences of military escalation have added to dissatisfaction.
4. Vulnerable congressional seats: Republican retirements and competitive local races make it difficult for Trump’s personal political appeal to guarantee victories across individual districts.
🔻 Could the election results affect a decision to attack Iran?
Yes — politically, but not automatically or immediately.
If Republicans suffer heavy losses, Trump could face stronger pressure to avoid another costly military confrontation, particularly if voters associate the Iran war with rising energy prices and economic insecurity.
There is also a second possibility: Trump could adopt a more confrontational foreign policy to project strength after an electoral defeat. Neither scenario is inevitable, and there is no verified evidence that an attack decision depends on the election outcome.
The new Congress will not take office until January 2027, meaning today’s results would initially change political expectations rather than the legal balance of power.
⚖️ The observer’s Assessment
Even if Democrats win both chambers, Washington’s strategic relationship with Israel will not suddenly disappear. Bipartisan support for Israel remains deeply embedded in American politics, although divisions over military assistance, settlements and Palestinian rights have grown.
The real verdict begins in the House of Representatives. But the consequences could reach far beyond Washington, including Tehran, Tel Aviv and the Strait of Hormuz.