Baghdad
In a series of questions addressed to Iraq’s Coordination Framework, an account presenting itself as belonging to Kataib Hezbollah’s security official demanded clarification regarding oil sales contracts with the UAE’s Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC).
The account asked:
“Are you aware of the oil sales contracts with ADNOC? And do you approve of selling oil at a discount of $47 per barrel?”
The account specifically accused Tom Barrack, Tahnoun bin Zayed, Hassan Faleh al-Zaidi, and Saad Wahib of sharing in the profits generated by these contracts.
It further alleged that their combined profits exceeded 4.5 trillion Iraqi dinars per month.
These allegations have not been independently verified.
John Mearsheimer: america’s Security Umbrella is Cracking — Saudi Arabia Faces a Strategic Dilemma Confronting Iran and Ansar Allah!
21 October 2026 | United States – Offensive Realism Podcast
In a striking assessment of the Gulf’s future, American strategic thinker John Mearsheimer, professor of political science at the University of Chicago, warned that Washington and Riyadh face a profound military and strategic crisis, and that reliance on American military power no longer guarantees protection from the consequences of regional wars.
Who reignited the Saudi–Yemeni confrontation?
Mearsheimer argues that Saudi Arabia was responsible for reigniting the confrontation with Ansar Allah in July 2026, after reportedly receiving President Donald Trump’s approval and encouragement.
He holds Washington responsible for encouraging Riyadh to enter a confrontation it has been unable to resolve militarily.
Why does he consider the consequences disastrous for Saudi Arabia?
Mearsheimer argues that Ansar Allah has demonstrated its ability to threaten Saudi oil facilities, energy export routes, and shipping in the Red Sea.
He maintains that despite its overwhelming military superiority, the United States lacks a clear strategy for achieving a decisive victory over the movement, particularly after depleting substantial ammunition reserves in previous confrontations.
The American security umbrella is no longer a sufficient guarantee
Mearsheimer questions Washington’s ability to fully protect its military bases and Gulf allies against missile and drone attacks.
In his assessment, American wars have placed Gulf countries in a dangerous dilemma: dependence on US protection may expose their territories and infrastructure to military retaliation rather than shield them from conflict.
Saudi Arabia caught between two fronts
The analysis warns that renewed US–Israeli military action against Iran could expose Riyadh to simultaneous pressure from Ansar Allah in Yemen and Iranian forces.
Such a scenario could threaten energy security, ports, and critical infrastructure, even if Saudi Arabia does not directly enter the war.
Has Iran become the indispensable power in the Gulf?
Mearsheimer’s assessment rests on the argument that Iran possesses military capabilities that make excluding it from any regional security arrangement unrealistic.
This underscores the importance of direct dialogue between Tehran and Gulf governments and the need to develop security arrangements based on coexistence rather than exclusive dependence on American military power.
Calls to include Iran and Iraq in regional security arrangements reflect this approach, although it has not been confirmed that every reported detail of the Omani initiative was mentioned by Mearsheimer himself.
What about nuclear weapons?
Mearsheimer warns that continued warfare and the erosion of confidence in security guarantees could push regional states to consider more dangerous forms of deterrence, including nuclear options.
This is a warning about the potential proliferation of weapons, not confirmation that Gulf states have decided to acquire nuclear arsenals.
⚖️ The observer’s Assessment | Conclusion
The significance of Mearsheimer’s analysis lies in the fact that it comes from one of America’s most prominent theorists of political realism, rather than an Iranian official or an Ansar Allah leader.
He argues that Washington has failed to impose decisive military outcomes and that continued reliance on force may increase the losses suffered by its allies instead of protecting them.
The central strategic message is clear: lasting security in the Gulf cannot be built by excluding Iran, and an American military presence does not provide an absolute guarantee against war.
Are “Shaheen” Drones Operating in Iraqi Airspace? Kataib Hezbollah Calls on the Coordination Framework to Address Its Security Responsibilities
The account known as “Al-Hajj Al-Assaf” continued directing questions to Iraq’s Coordination Framework concerning national security, demanding clarification on whether Al-Zaidi had informed its members about:
“The activities of the Emirati–Syrian ‘Shaheen’ drones and their interference in Iraqi airspace.”
The account further alleged that one of these drones
“crashed at Fadak Farm in Karbala, while another had previously crashed in Samawah. The drones are now in the custody of the Popular Mobilization Forces’ intelligence service.”