Rising domestic pressure on both governments.

Greater distrust after direct military exchanges.

Increased influence of hardliners on both sides.

Positive Factors

Neither side has abandoned diplomacy.

Energy-market pressures create incentives for de-escalation.

Gulf states generally prefer a negotiated outcome over prolonged conflict.

My assessment is that negotiations are weakened but not dead. The current escalation resembles coercive bargaining more than a final collapse of diplomacy.

Impact on the Lebanon Ceasefire

The greatest risk for Lebanon is linkage.

If Iran concludes that negotiations are failing because of continued military pressure from Washington and Israel, pressure could increase across multiple fronts.

Conversely, if negotiations recover, Lebanon could benefit from a broader regional de-escalation package.

Recent reports indicate that Iran has connected developments in Lebanon to wider regional calculations, making the Lebanese ceasefire increasingly dependent on regional diplomacy rather than purely local dynamics.

How Israel Benefits

Israel benefits strategically from prolonged confrontation between Washington and Tehran in several ways:

International attention shifts away from Gaza and Lebanon.

Iranian diplomatic and military resources are diverted toward the Gulf.

Regional normalization efforts become more dependent on U.S. security guarantees.

Pressure grows for continued containment of Iranian influence.

However, Israel also faces risks. A complete collapse of diplomacy could produce a broader regional conflict involving multiple fronts, increasing uncertainty for all actors. This is why some Israeli and American security officials have historically favored pressure combined with controlled escalation rather than unlimited confrontation.