The Russia–Ukraine war appears to be entering a more intense phase after Kyiv sharply increased its long-range strikes in recent days against oil refineries, fuel depots, and energy logistics infrastructure inside Russia, in an apparent attempt to raise the economic and military cost of the war for Moscow.
During the latest wave of attacks, the Russian Defense Ministry said large numbers of drones were intercepted over several Russian regions, Crimea, and the Sea of Azov, while authorities in Moscow said hundreds of drones had been directed toward the capital region. Reports also indicated that the Volodarskaya facility was targeted — an important fuel storage and distribution hub linked to the Transneft network and involved in supplying Moscow’s main airports.
At the same time, several major Russian refineries have come under repeated attack. The Volgograd refinery halted crude processing following an attack on October 2, while other facilities have been forced to reduce output or temporarily suspend parts of their operations.
However, circulating claims that all Russian oil refineries have completely stopped operating are not supported by reliable evidence so far. Ukraine says its strikes have disabled a large share of Russia’s refining capacity, while international estimates point to a significant decline in the production of some refined products, particularly diesel, forcing Moscow to restrict exports and rely more heavily on additional fuel imports.
Ukraine’s objective does not appear to be the complete destruction of Russia’s oil industry, but rather its gradual exhaustion. Repeated attacks on sensitive refining units and fuel storage facilities can force lengthy repairs, complicate domestic supply chains, increase transportation pressure, and create additional difficulties for military logistics.
But the most dangerous development may be Russia’s response.
In recent hours, assessments and warnings have increased over the possibility that Russia could launch a large-scale aerial bombardment of Ukraine overnight. If such an attack takes place, Moscow could combine large numbers of long-range attack drones, Kalibr cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and KAB guided aerial bombs against military targets, energy infrastructure, and other critical facilities across Ukraine.
So far, the scale of any potential Russian strike remains an assessment rather than a confirmed event, and it is not possible to state in advance how many missiles or drones would be used.
The broader picture: Kyiv is trying to shift a greater share of the war’s costs into Russia itself by targeting fuel and energy infrastructure, while Moscow still retains the ability to respond with large-scale missile and drone campaigns against Ukraine’s energy network and military infrastructure.
What is happening is no longer simply an exchange of strikes along the front line. The conflict is increasingly developing into a war of attrition against critical infrastructure and energy systems on both sides, and the coming hours may show just how far this latest round of escalation will go.