Shocking Assessment from the Council on Foreign Relations: Trump Faces Strategic Defeat in the Iran War
The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)—one of the United States’ leading foreign-policy think tanks—has published a striking assessment marking six months of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, warning that Washington is drifting toward a
“strategic defeat”
as a result of miscalculations and confusion over its objectives.
Key points from the center’s experts:
1️⃣ STEVEN COOK — Middle East and Turkey specialist
▫️ A major miscalculation:
“President Donald Trump did not expect Iran to resist U.S. military power,”
turning that assumption into both a battlefield and political setback.
▫️ Allies left exposed:
After six months, Washington’s Gulf partners have become increasingly vulnerable to Iranian strikes, while Tehran’s incentive to preserve or pursue a nuclear option has reached its highest levels.
▫️ The illusion of economic pressure:
Trump is relying on
“economic ostracism”
to either bring down the Iranian government or force it into negotiations. But Cook argues that Trump
“may be overstating the impact of economic pain,”
particularly because the Iranian population was already suffering economically and has developed mechanisms to adapt.
▫️ A crisis of confidence:
Trump expected a
“quick victory.”
Instead, Washington now faces the possibility of defeat, while regional allies are increasingly questioning whether the United States has the capability—and the willingness—to guarantee their security.
2️⃣ ELLIOTT ABRAMS — Former U.S. diplomat and CFR fellow
▫️ A widening domestic divide:
The war has generated diplomatic disagreements and fierce criticism from both the far right and far left within the United States.
▫️ Conflicting objectives with Israel:
Washington seeks to force a
“change in Iran’s behavior,”
including regarding its nuclear program and its activities around the Strait of Hormuz. Israel, however, views
“regime change”
as the only viable option—making any settlement or memorandum of understanding a persistent source of disagreement between Washington and Tel Aviv.
▫️ Declining public support:
Polling has shown a notable decline in support for Israel among both Republicans and Democrats, alongside growing editorial and political voices accusing Israel of