The southern front is heating up again, and the contradiction is becoming impossible to ignore: Israeli forces are expanding military operations inside southern Lebanon at the same time that Washington is trying to keep the Lebanese–Israeli negotiating track alive.
Over the past 24 hours:
▪️ Israeli aircraft, artillery and heavy weapons struck several areas across Bint Jbeil, Marjayoun, Tyre and Nabatieh, including the surroundings of Zibqin, Beit Yahoun, Khiam, Hadatha and the area between Mayfadoun and Zawtar al-Sharqiyah. Lebanese reporting also described major explosions around Mansouri.
▪️ The escalation followed an Israeli military claim that Hezbollah launched an explosive drone toward Israeli troops operating inside Israel’s self-declared buffer zone in southern Lebanon. Israel said nobody was wounded and responded with airstrikes on what it described as drone, anti-tank and other Hezbollah military infrastructure. Hezbollah had not publicly claimed that attack in the immediate reporting.
▪️ Israel also announced today that it had completed a major operation around Mansouri, claiming its troops destroyed more than 600 Hezbollah-related sites, eight underground routes and dozens of launchers. Those figures are Israeli military claims and have not been independently verified.
▪️ At the same time, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem used Sunday’s anniversary address to reiterate that the group would not discuss disarmament before an Israeli withdrawal and the return of displaced residents. He also called on the Lebanese government to freeze direct negotiations with Israel and return to indirect talks.
There are no direct Lebanese–Israeli negotiations taking place in Rome right now.
The next expanded US-mediated round, originally expected in September, was postponed until October. The last direct contact reported was a September 16 meeting between the Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors at the US State Department in Washington. The October Rome round is supposed to focus on the US-brokered security framework, Israeli withdrawal, Lebanese Army deployment and the future of Hezbollah’s weapons.
That makes the military picture particularly significant.
Israel is negotiating while simultaneously trying to reshape facts on the ground: maintaining its buffer zone, demolishing suspected Hezbollah infrastructure and attempting to prevent the group from rebuilding positions near the frontier.
From Hezbollah’s standpoint, the argument is the opposite: negotiations conducted while Israeli forces remain on Lebanese territory and continue striking the south give Israel leverage without first forcing a withdrawal. Qassem explicitly advanced that position yesterday.
And then there is the Israeli election.
Israel votes on October 27, meaning every military development in Lebanon now lands in the middle of an election campaign already dominated by security and the wars since October 2023.
But the important point is this: the Lebanon war has not produced a clear electoral breakthrough for Netanyahu.
The newest Kan poll has Netanyahu’s bloc and the opposing “change” bloc tied at 52 seats each. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar remains ahead of Likud, 23 seats to 21, while Netanyahu leads Eisenkot by just 39% to 38% when respondents are asked whom they prefer as prime minister. Other recent polls vary widely, underscoring how unsettled the race remains.
For Netanyahu, continued fighting allows him to campaign on military pressure, deterrence and preventing Hezbollah’s return to the border.
For Eisenkot and other opponents, the same fighting creates a different question: after years of war and enormous military operations, has Israel actually produced a stable political settlement? Eisenkot’s campaign has specifically argued that tactical battlefield successes have not always been converted into lasting strategic outcomes.
So the battle for southern Lebanon now has two fronts:
One is military — airstrikes, drones, tunnels, artillery and control of territory.
The other is political — Rome, Washington, Beirut and an Israeli election only weeks away.
And that is what makes the coming weeks dangerous: every escalation in southern Lebanon is now simultaneously a military event, a negotiating tool and an Israeli campaign issue.