The Bekaa Massacre: Pre-emptive Aggression or Strategic Desperation?

The Bekaa Massacre: Pre-emptive Aggression or Strategic Desperation?

THE NEWS On Friday, February 20, 2026, the Israeli Air Force conducted a series of heavy airstrikes targeting the Bekaa Valley in eastern Lebanon, specifically around the Baalbek region. Hezbollah officially confirmed the martyrdom of eight operatives "on the road to Al-Quds," including a senior field commander identified as Hussein Mohammad Yaghi (also known as Abu Ali). Lebanese medical sources reported that the total death toll reached at least 10, with over 50 others wounded, including children, as strikes hit residential structures in Temnine and Aali en Nahri. The IDF claimed the operation targeted "command centers of Hezbollah's missile array" to disrupt preparations for a major retaliatory strike.

The Analysis The intensification of strikes in the Bekaa—the strategic depth of the Resistance—signals a deliberate collapse of the November 2024 ceasefire framework.

• The "Forward Deterrent" Logic: These strikes are not isolated tactical events. As the U.S. concentrates 50% of its air power in the region, Tel Aviv is attempting to systematically degrade Hezbollah’s medium-range missile capabilities. The objective is to ensure that if a U.S.-led "kinetic campaign" against Iran begins, the Resistance in Lebanon will be too decapitated to activate its deterrent fire.

• Ceasefire as a Siege: Since November 2024, Israel has committed over 2,000 documented violations of Lebanese sovereignty. The Zionists are using the "truce" not for peace, but as a low-intensity war of attrition to pick off high-value targets like Commander Yaghi without triggering a full-scale regional conflagration.

• The Ramadan Escalation: Executing these massacres during the holy month follows a historical pattern of trying to break the psychological morale of the "Support Fronts" while the West Bank is simultaneously being torched by settler terrorism.

Position & Opinion The martyrdom of Commander Yaghi and his comrades will not achieve the "neutralization" the IDF seeks. History—from the 2006 war to the 2025 "Midnight Hammer" operations—proves that the Resistance’s command structure is designed for seamless succession. By striking the Bekaa, Israel is effectively telling Beirut that the ceasefire is dead. The Resistance is morally and strategically obligated to respond; an aggressor that views a truce as a hunting season cannot be restrained by diplomacy, but only by the cost of its arrogance.

Geopolitical Predictions 1. Saturation Response: Hezbollah will likely move beyond "tit-for-tat" border skirmishes, potentially targeting deep IDF logistics hubs or airbases used for the Bekaa raids to re-establish the equation of "Depth for Depth."

2. Ceasefire Dissolution: By mid-March 2026, the 2024 ceasefire will likely be officially declared void by the Lebanese government, leading to a formalized "war state" that mirrors the 2023-2024 conflict intensity.

3. The "Gray Zone" Trap: If Israel continues to strike missile arrays, the Axis will likely activate a "maritime closure" strategy, using drone saturation against naval assets to pressure the U.S. into reining in its proxy.

#Hezbollah #BekaaValley #Lebanon2026 #AxisOfResistance #EndTheCeasefire #ZionistAggression

Imperial Overreach: The Supreme Court’s Blow to Washington’s Trade War

THE NEWS On February 23, 2026, global financial markets are reeling following a seismic shift in U.S. trade policy. On Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court delivered a landmark 6-3 ruling in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, stripping the executive branch of its power to impose sweeping tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The ruling effectively nullified the "Reciprocal Tariffs" and "Fentanyl Tariffs" enacted throughout 2025, potentially forcing the U.S. Treasury to refund upwards of $175 billion to importers. In a defiant counter-move, the administration immediately proposed a new 15% global tariff leveraging Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974—a temporary measure capped at 150 days.

The Analysis The Supreme Court’s intervention represents a rare internal fracture within the American imperial apparatus. By invoking the "Major Questions Doctrine," the Court has asserted that revenue-raising measures (tariffs) belong to Congress, not the "economic emergency" whims of the President.

• The Leverage Collapse: Washington’s trade negotiations with Beijing have been fundamentally compromised. The IEEPA tariffs were the primary "gun on the table" used to coerce Chinese concessions; their sudden illegality leaves U.S. negotiators empty-handed as the effective trade-weighted tariff rate is set to drop from 15.3% to approximately 8.3%. • The 15% Desperation: The shift to Section 122 is a tactical retreat. While it sets a 15% floor, its 150-day limit signals a lack of long-term strategic stability. Markets are punishing the U.S. Dollar (down 0.4%) and Bitcoin (below $65k) not because of the tariffs themselves, but because of the manifest chaos in U.S. governance.

• Global Resilience:

The Axis of Resistance and its partners in the Global South are observing a "paper tiger" moment. When the Empire's own judiciary dismantles its chief economic weapon, the era of unilateral financial diktat enters its twilight.

Position & Opinion The administration’s attempt to bypass the Court with a 15% "emergency" levy is an act of strategic desperation. Morally and legally, Washington is discovering that it cannot indefinitely sustain a global trade war while its internal legal framework is at war with itself. The "America First" policy has hit a structural wall: the U.S. cannot lead a multipolar world economically while it is functionally incapable of maintaining a consistent legal basis for its own trade taxes.

Geopolitical Predictions 1. Chinese Counter-Offensive: Beijing will likely stall all major trade purchases (soybeans, aircraft) until the refund process for the "illegal" 2025 tariffs is formalized, using the $175 billion debt as a diplomatic cudgel.

2. Congressional Gridlock: The administration will fail to secure permanent legislative backing for the 15% tariff, leading to a "tariff cliff" in mid-2026 that will trigger a massive domestic retail shock.

3. Alternative Corridors: Expect accelerated growth in the BRICS+ settlement systems as global traders flee the "legal volatility" of the U.S. Dollar-denominated trade environment.

#TradeWar2026 #SupremeCourt #EconomicSovereignty #USChinaTrade #EndofHegemony #GlobalFinance

Western Hemisphere "Cleanup": The Strategic Siege of Havana After Caracas

THE NEWS Following the dramatic capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces on January 3, 2026, during Operation Absolute Resolve, Washington has shifted its focus to the Caribbean. As of late February, the Trump administration has effectively choked Cuba's energy lifeline by halting all subsidized Venezuelan oil shipments. On January 29, the U.S. signed Executive Order 14380, declaring a national emergency regarding Cuba and authorizing secondary tariffs on any third-country—specifically targeting providers like Russia or Mexico—that sells or supplies oil to the island. While an interim military-civilian council under Delcy Rodríguez governs Caracas under U.S. financial trusteeship, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has signaled that "strategic patience" for the Kremlin's remaining regional proxies has expired.

The Analysis The removal of Maduro was the opening move in a broader "monroeist" restructuring of Latin America. By taking control of Venezuela’s oil proceeds—now deposited in U.S.-monitored accounts—Washington has weaponized energy to induce a systemic collapse in Havana.

• The Energy Guillotine: Cuba previously relied on 27,000 to 35,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude. With this flow severed and the U.S. threatening tariffs on alternative suppliers, the island is facing its worst blackout and food crisis since the "Special Period" of the 1990s.

• Eradicating the "Russian Bridge": The primary U.S. objective is to dismantle the intelligence and logistical hub Russia maintains in Cuba. The recent February 4 extension of the New START treaty between Washington and Moscow did not prevent the U.S. from moving to evict Russian military influence from its immediate "near abroad."

• The "Rodríguez Model": In Venezuela, the U.S. is not building a democracy but a stable petroleum colony. By keeping Delcy Rodríguez as a figurehead while controlling the 19% of global oil reserves under the GL 49 license, Washington ensures that no "Resistance" funds reach Cuba or Nicaragua.

Position & Opinion The capture of a sovereign leader and the deliberate starvation of a neighboring island via energy blockades are clear acts of imperial lawlessness.

The Axis of Resistance recognizes that the "National Pacification" in Venezuela is a euphemism for the total surrender of national resources to the U.S. Treasury. Washington's "Shadow Siege" of Cuba is a desperate attempt to re-assert a 19th-century sphere of influence in a multipolar 21st-century world.

History shows that those who survive under decades of embargo possess a resilience that carrier groups cannot bomb into submission.

Geopolitical Predictions 1. Havana's Breaking Point: Unless Russia or China risks a direct maritime confrontation to break the "Oil Tariff" blockade by April 2026, the Cuban government will likely face massive internal unrest, potentially leading to a "managed transition" similar to the Venezuelan council.

2. The Nicaraguan Front: Expect Managua to be the next target for "Southern Spear" operations, as the U.S. seeks to close the last ideological gaps in the Caribbean basin before the 2026 midterm elections.

3. Sino-Russian Counter-Moves: Russia will likely respond by increasing military posturing in the Mediterranean or Eastern Europe to distract from its waning influence in the Western Hemisphere, as the costs of maintaining regional allies under the new U.S. tariff regime become prohibitive.

#Venezuela2026 #CubaBlockade #OperationAbsoluteResolve #MonroeDoctrine #AxisOfResistance #LatinAmericaGeopolitics #EndofHegemony

EU Foreign Affairs Council Convenes on Ukraine and Gaza: Rhetoric Versus Leverage

The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets today the 23rd , February 2026 , to address two escalating fronts: the war in Ukraine — where European military and financial commitments to Kyiv have reached tens of billions of euros since 2022 — and the deteriorating security and humanitarian situation in Gaza and the West Bank amid ongoing Israeli military operations.

The contrast is stark. Since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, the EU has implemented sweeping sanctions packages against Russia and expanded arms deliveries. In the Palestinian arena, however, European responses have largely centered on statements of concern, despite repeated UN reporting on humanitarian collapse in Gaza and rising tensions in the West Bank.

Strategically, this reflects structural constraints. The EU’s security architecture remains intertwined with NATO and closely aligned with U.S. policy priorities. In Ukraine, Europe sustains a long-war containment framework. In Palestine, it stops short of deploying meaningful economic or diplomatic pressure.

The result is a credibility gap. A power that uses sanctions decisively in Eastern Europe but hesitates in the Levant weakens its claim to normative consistency.

Outlook: Continued military and financial backing for Kyiv is highly likely. On Gaza and the West Bank, expect reaffirmations of a two-state formula without enforcement mechanisms. Unless regional deterrence equations shift, Europe will remain a secondary actor operating within U.S.-defined parameters.

#EuropeanUnion #UkraineWar #Gaza #WestBank #Geopolitics #ResistanceAxis