The End of New START: A "Grave Moment" for Global Security

The End of New START: A "Grave Moment" for Global Security

Today, February 5, 2026, marks a historic and dangerous turning point in international relations. The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the final bilateral agreement regulating the nuclear arsenals of the United States and Russia, has officially expired. For the first time since 1972, the world’s two largest nuclear powers—possessing roughly 90% of the world's nuclear warheads—are operating without any legally binding limits on their strategic forces.

Key Consequences of Expiration

The lapse of New START removes the "guardrails" that have prevented an all-out nuclear competition for decades:

• Removal of Caps: The treaty limited each side to 1,550 deployed warheads and 700 deployed delivery systems (missiles and bombers). Both nations are now legally free to expand these numbers indefinitely.

• Loss of Transparency: The end of mutual on-site inspections and data exchanges means intelligence agencies will now rely on "worst-case scenario" estimates. This lack of certainty significantly increases the risk of miscalculation during crises.

• Strain on the NPT: The expiration undermines the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Non-nuclear states may now question the commitment of major powers to disarmament, potentially fueling nuclear ambitions in regions like the Middle East and East Asia( and perhaps this is a good decision! ) .

A New Triple Arms Race? The vacuum left by New START doesn’t just affect Washington and Moscow. We are entering a "polycrisis" in nuclear stability:

1. US vs. Russia: Both nations have the technical capacity to "upload" stored warheads onto existing missiles. Reports suggest the US could double its deployed forces within a few years if it chooses to match potential Russian increases.

2. The China Factor: A major hurdle in negotiations was the US demand to include China, which is rapidly expanding its arsenal. Beijing has consistently refused to join limits until the US and Russia reduce their stockpiles to Chinese levels.

3. The Technological Edge: Unlike the Cold War, this new race involves Hypersonic Missiles and Artificial Intelligence, which compress decision-making times and make traditional arms control frameworks nearly obsolete.

The Current Stance • Russia: President Putin proposed an informal one-year adherence to the limits in late 2025, but the offer was not formalized. Moscow maintains that any future deal must include UK and French arsenals.

• United States: The Trump administration has signaled a preference for a "better agreement" over an extension, emphasizing the need for a multilateral framework that includes China.

• United Nations: Secretary-General António Guterres has labeled this a "grave moment," warning that the risk of nuclear use is at its highest in decades.

The international community now faces a choice: innovate a new, trilateral arms control architecture or brace for an era of unpredictable, high-stakes nuclear competition.