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LE MONDE DIPLOMATIQUEMajor arms sellers and buyersMAIL & GUARDIANEconomists split on whether 2026 budget marks a real turning pointTHE INDEPENDENTMamdani says he will not ban snowball fights after police targetedMAIL & GUARDIANSocial Grants get R292.8bn boostTHE INDEPENDENTNearly blind refugee abandoned by border patrol agents found dead in BuffaloMAIL & GUARDIANPolitical parties criticise budget speech amid stagnant growthLE MONDE DIPLOMATIQUEGaza: from witness to resistanceMAIL & GUARDIANGodongwana financially backs Ramaphosa’s tough talk on crimeBRASIL WIREAnalysis: NYT’s bizarre coverage and omissions of Bolsonaro’s murderous coup plotTHE INDEPENDENTTwo British men arrested in Benidorm after ‘staging fake kidnapping’ to extort £725THE INDEPENDENTFour US residents killed, six captured after attempted ‘armed infiltration’ of Cuba, interior ministry saysBRASIL WIREInside Brazil’s X Ban: How Elon Musk Started–and lost–a Fight With Brazil’s JudiciaryLE MONDE DIPLOMATIQUEFebruary: the longer viewLE MONDE DIPLOMATIQUEThe United States' history of regime change — revisitedBRASIL WIRENathália Urban Presente!THE DIPLOMATThai Election Body Certifies Most Parliamentary Seats, Affirming Bhumjaithai VictoryBRASIL WIREBolsonaro Takes Stand in Coup TrialTHE GUARDIANTwo women arrested in Uganda for allegedly kissing in public could face life sentenceBRASIL WIREMinister warns of “industrial-scale” organized disinformation campaign, hindering disaster effortsTHE DIPLOMATPro-Trump Influencer Nick Adams Dropped as US Ambassador to Malaysia, Report SaysTHE GUARDIANRoyal Artillery under fire after denying access to looted Asante treasureTHE INDEPENDENTEpstein trafficked women ‘through UK airports until month before arrest’ in 2019THE DIPLOMATSoutheast Asia’s Grab Finally Turns a ProfitGLOBAL TIMESTrump claims India will buy Venezuelan oil, welcomes China's investment; 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Chinese expert notices remarks 'unilateral,' no confirmation from Indian sideTHE GUARDIAN‘A devastating force’: how recent Mediterranean storms turned to tragediesMAIL & GUARDIANEkurhuleni’s moment: Why a University of Applied Science cannot waitTHE DIPLOMATCambodia Rejects Thai Claims It Launched a Grenade at Thai TroopsTHE GUARDIANUS accused of ‘shameless exploitation’ over proposed Zambian health aid dealLE MONDE DIPLOMATIQUEIran unravelled, a littleTHE GUARDIANRobert Mugabe’s son charged with attempted murder over Johannesburg shootingLE MONDE DIPLOMATIQUEMajor arms sellers and buyersMAIL & GUARDIANEconomists split on whether 2026 budget marks a real turning pointTHE INDEPENDENTMamdani says he will not ban snowball fights after police targetedMAIL & GUARDIANSocial Grants get R292.8bn boostTHE INDEPENDENTNearly blind refugee abandoned by border patrol agents found dead in BuffaloMAIL & GUARDIANPolitical parties criticise budget speech amid stagnant growthLE MONDE DIPLOMATIQUEGaza: from witness to resistanceMAIL & GUARDIANGodongwana financially backs Ramaphosa’s tough talk on crimeBRASIL WIREAnalysis: NYT’s bizarre coverage and omissions of Bolsonaro’s murderous coup plotTHE INDEPENDENTTwo British men arrested in Benidorm after ‘staging fake kidnapping’ to extort £725THE INDEPENDENTFour US residents killed, six captured after attempted ‘armed infiltration’ of Cuba, interior ministry saysBRASIL WIREInside Brazil’s X Ban: How Elon Musk Started–and lost–a Fight With Brazil’s JudiciaryLE MONDE DIPLOMATIQUEFebruary: the longer viewLE MONDE DIPLOMATIQUEThe United States' history of regime change — revisitedBRASIL WIRENathália Urban Presente!THE DIPLOMATThai Election Body Certifies Most Parliamentary Seats, Affirming Bhumjaithai VictoryBRASIL WIREBolsonaro Takes Stand in Coup TrialTHE GUARDIANTwo women arrested in Uganda for allegedly kissing in public could face life sentenceBRASIL WIREMinister warns of “industrial-scale” organized disinformation campaign, hindering disaster effortsTHE DIPLOMATPro-Trump Influencer Nick Adams Dropped as US Ambassador to Malaysia, Report SaysTHE GUARDIANRoyal Artillery under fire after denying access to looted Asante treasureTHE INDEPENDENTEpstein trafficked women ‘through UK airports until month before arrest’ in 2019THE DIPLOMATSoutheast Asia’s Grab Finally Turns a ProfitGLOBAL TIMESTrump claims India will buy Venezuelan oil, welcomes China's investment; Chinese expert notices remarks 'unilateral,' no confirmation from Indian sideTHE GUARDIAN‘A devastating force’: how recent Mediterranean storms turned to tragediesMAIL & GUARDIANEkurhuleni’s moment: Why a University of Applied Science cannot waitTHE DIPLOMATCambodia Rejects Thai Claims It Launched a Grenade at Thai TroopsTHE GUARDIANUS accused of ‘shameless exploitation’ over proposed Zambian health aid dealLE MONDE DIPLOMATIQUEIran unravelled, a littleTHE GUARDIANRobert Mugabe’s son charged with attempted murder over Johannesburg shootingLE MONDE DIPLOMATIQUEMajor arms sellers and buyersMAIL & GUARDIANEconomists split on whether 2026 budget marks a real turning pointTHE INDEPENDENTMamdani says he will not ban snowball fights after police targetedMAIL & GUARDIANSocial Grants get R292.8bn boostTHE INDEPENDENTNearly blind refugee abandoned by border patrol agents found dead in BuffaloMAIL & GUARDIANPolitical parties criticise budget speech amid stagnant growthLE MONDE DIPLOMATIQUEGaza: from witness to resistanceMAIL & GUARDIANGodongwana financially backs Ramaphosa’s tough talk on crimeBRASIL WIREAnalysis: NYT’s bizarre coverage and omissions of Bolsonaro’s murderous coup plotTHE INDEPENDENTTwo British men arrested in Benidorm after ‘staging fake kidnapping’ to extort £725THE INDEPENDENTFour US residents killed, six captured after attempted ‘armed infiltration’ of Cuba, interior ministry saysBRASIL WIREInside Brazil’s X Ban: How Elon Musk Started–and lost–a Fight With Brazil’s JudiciaryLE MONDE DIPLOMATIQUEFebruary: the longer viewLE MONDE DIPLOMATIQUEThe United States' history of regime change — revisitedBRASIL WIRENathália Urban Presente!THE DIPLOMATThai Election Body Certifies Most Parliamentary Seats, Affirming Bhumjaithai VictoryBRASIL WIREBolsonaro Takes Stand in Coup TrialTHE GUARDIANTwo women arrested in Uganda for allegedly kissing in public could face life sentenceBRASIL WIREMinister warns of “industrial-scale” organized disinformation campaign, hindering disaster effortsTHE DIPLOMATPro-Trump Influencer Nick Adams Dropped as US Ambassador to Malaysia, Report SaysTHE GUARDIANRoyal Artillery under fire after denying access to looted Asante treasureTHE INDEPENDENTEpstein trafficked women ‘through UK airports until month before arrest’ in 2019THE DIPLOMATSoutheast Asia’s Grab Finally Turns a ProfitGLOBAL TIMESTrump claims India will buy Venezuelan oil, welcomes China's investment; Chinese expert notices remarks 'unilateral,' no confirmation from Indian sideTHE GUARDIAN‘A devastating force’: how recent Mediterranean storms turned to tragediesMAIL & GUARDIANEkurhuleni’s moment: Why a University of Applied Science cannot waitTHE DIPLOMATCambodia Rejects Thai Claims It Launched a Grenade at Thai TroopsTHE GUARDIANUS accused of ‘shameless exploitation’ over proposed Zambian health aid dealLE MONDE DIPLOMATIQUEIran unravelled, a littleTHE GUARDIANRobert Mugabe’s son charged with attempted murder over Johannesburg shooting
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USAIran

The Illusion of a "Quick Win": Trump’s Military Surge and the Strategic Reality of Iran

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The Illusion of a "Quick Win": Trump’s Military Surge and the Strategic Reality of Iran

The Illusion of a "Quick Win": Trump’s Military Surge and the Strategic Reality of Iran The News: 🫶President Donald Trump has dismissed intelligence suggesting General Dan Caine warned of the catastrophic risks of a full-scale war with Iran, labeling the reports "100 percent incorrect." Asserting that a conflict could be "easily won," Trump has overseen the deployment of a massive naval and air armada, spearheaded by the USS Gerald R. Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln.

This deployment represents nearly 50% of total U.S. global air power currently concentrated in the region.

Strategic Analysis: The concentration of half of America's global air assets in a single theater is an escalation of "maximum pressure" into the realm of kinetic preparation. However, the rhetoric of an "easy victory" ignores the evolution of asymmetric warfare and the doctrine of "Strategic Depth" employed by the Axis of Resistance. Historically, U.S. reliance on air superiority has failed to achieve political submission in the Middle East; in the case of Iran, the cost of engagement involves the immediate paralysis of global energy corridors—a variable the White House appears to be discounting.

Position and Assessment: Trump’s dismissal of military counsel highlights a dangerous disconnect between ideological bravado and operational reality. The assumption that advanced carrier strike groups can deliver a decisive blow without a prolonged regional conflagration is flawed.

🫶The Axis of Resistance operates on a decentralized model that renders conventional "victory" metrics obsolete. Evidence suggests that any strike would trigger a multi-front response, nullifying the tactical advantages of U.S. naval positioning.

Forward-Looking Predictions: Overextension: Maintaining 50% of global air power in one sector creates strategic vulnerabilities elsewhere, forcing a future drawdown or a costly long-term stalemate.

Regional Blowback: Expect heightened coordination among regional resistance factions, aimed at making the cost of U.S. presence unsustainable through precision strikes and maritime disruption.

Pivot to Negotiation: As the reality of a "non-easy" war sets in, the U.S. will likely be forced back to the negotiating table by mid-2026, driven by economic instability and the refusal of regional allies to host a direct conflict.

#Iran #USA #Geopolitics #AxisOfResistance #StrategicAnalysis #TheObserver