The Jolani Model or the Iranian Model?
Dr. Foad Izadi
Trump’s promise to Jolani in their meeting yesterday was:
"We will remove Syria from the State Sponsors of Terrorism list."
Trump had previously stated that Jolani is
"fully coordinated with America,"
adding that he is considering using him to confront Lebanese Hezbollah.
The US Secretary of State also stated yesterday:
"Lifting sanctions on Syria will free up international trade and investment, and give Syria an opportunity for reconstruction."
This means:
• After a year and a half of being enabled in power by America.
• Four personal meetings with Trump.
• Accepting the Israeli occupation of a large part of Syrian territory.
• Formal readiness to act as mercenaries for America...
Jolani has only just received a promise to remove Syria from the State Sponsors of Terrorism list.
To the honorable official in the Islamic Republic,
To lift US sanctions in the long term, you must become like "Jolani."
Are you ready for that?
Lifting US sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran in the long term is an illusion, an illusion, an illusion.
The Solution:
1. Experience has proven that concessions and negotiations do not ward off the specter of war, because as the Martyr Imam said:
"America wants to swallow Iran."
This means that concessions, no matter how large, are not enough for it. In the past four months, we have found no evidence to refute this analysis by the Martyr Imam.
1. In principle, the country's top priority must be to break the cycle of: attack, ceasefire, negotiation, then attack again. Not waiting to obtain genetically modified soybeans (American or otherwise), which is questionable to begin with.
2. The correct way to keep the specter of war away from the country is "military deterrence." Please publish a list of water desalination and oil facilities in the region that constitute targets for Iran. In the event of a new attack on Iran, these facilities must be destroyed in a way that makes rebuilding them take at least two years. Attacks on Iran must not be allowed to become normalized.
Limited destruction does not create the required deterrence; Trump views the limited destruction of these facilities as a "reconstruction project" for his American companies. Widespread destruction, however, will keep global oil and gas prices high for at least two years, and that is what will create the necessary deterrence. Alternative routes to the Strait of Hormuz must be at the top of the Iranian target list.
If the Americans know that Iran will truly respond in this manner, they will not dare to attack it.
3. Please effectively close the Strait of Hormuz for at least two months. America has not yet paid the economic cost necessary for attacking Iran. The ability to afford the cost of attacking Iran means a new attack will happen.
Country officials have stated that in recent months they sold all the oil anchored in the waters and more at high prices, and the money was received. The country possesses the necessary liquidity to cover costs for the next two months.
4. Please do not waste the country's time on the illusions of "long-term sanctions removal" or promised investments of $300 billion.
5. Please do not forget to collect transit fees (tolls) after the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
If Iran does not collect fees in the Strait of Hormuz, America and English insurance companies will. Trump said a few days ago:
"The Strait of Hormuz is a money printing machine."
International Estimates Regarding the Revenue Capacity of the Strait of Hormuz:**
▪️ Reuters: $110 billion.
▪️ "Oxford Process" Research Center: $80 billion.
▪️ JPMorgan (the largest US financial and banking services company): Between $70 to $90 billion... meaning twice the amount of oil sales.
Collecting these fees does not violate any international law. Iran is not a member of the Law of the Sea Convention. Collecting customary fees will not isolate Iran from the world.