Dr. Mohamed Hassan Sweidan
To understand today's regional conflict, it must be viewed through two interconnected tracks:
1. The Existential Track (Post-Oct 7): Israel, Hezbollah, Iran, US influence, and the Palestinian cause all view this confrontation as a battle for survival.
2. The Global Order Track: The conflict coincides with the reshaping of global power balances. The outcomes will define each player's position in the new international system.
Despite a signed ceasefire agreement between Washington and Tehran, implementation is stalled. The US is escalating to pressure Iran into renegotiating its nuclear file and fuel internal divisions.
Conversely, Iran is raising the cost of escalation to show it will not back down, even if it means full-scale military confrontation.
Everything occurring—including the events in South Lebanon—is part of a broader regional war with existential stakes. No side can afford to retreat, as the results will shape the future global and regional order.