The Washington Post: What Are the "Desk Generals" Getting Wrong About Iran?

Quoting the channel of Dr. Foad Izadi

1. Military Deadlock:

Donald Trump has no viable military option that would allow him to successfully "finish the job" in Iran.

2. Disappointment in the Chinese Ally:

Trump returned from his meeting with Chinese Leader Xi Jinping without securing any support to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Now, Trump is looking for an exit from this war, which he previously predicted would end in "4 to 5 weeks," but has today entered its third month.

3. The Illusion of the "Desk Generals":

Many advisors are demanding that Trump "finish the work" by intensifying the bombing of Iran. However, these warmongers overestimate American airpower and underestimate Iran's capability to retaliate. After 38 days of joint US-Israeli bombardment without tangible results, it is difficult to believe that increasing the bombing will achieve anything.

4. Iranian Arsenal Superiority and US Depletion:

• According to US Intelligence: Iran still retains 70% of its pre-war missile arsenal.

• According to The New York Times: Iran retains 40% of its drone fleet.

• In Contrast: The US military has consumed most of its air defense munitions and long-range missiles.

5. Economic Catastrophe Scenario:

If Trump expands the strikes to include Iranian power plants and bridges, Iran will immediately retaliate by targeting energy facilities and desalination plants in the Gulf. We would then witness an economic and humanitarian catastrophe that would make the current 50% spike in oil prices look like "child's play."

6. Failure of the Assassination Policy:

There is no evidence proving that targeting additional Iranian leaders will make the regime in Tehran more flexible or prone to backing down.

7. The Impossibility of a Ground Invasion (The "Nuclear Dust" Option):

Last March, the idea of seizing Kharg Island or confiscating Iran's enriched uranium was floated, and Trump requested military plans to steal what he called "nuclear dust." However, this option requires thousands of troops on the ground for weeks deep inside a hostile country, which explains why Trump has not dared to issue this order so far, as it would be the most dangerous operation in US history.

8. The Kharg Island Trap:

Seizing Kharg Island might be easy, but what comes next? Thousands of Marines would find themselves trapped on an island just 15 miles off the Iranian coast, making them easy targets for Iranian artillery, without any strategic benefit since the island is 300 miles away from the Strait of Hormuz.

9. Failure of the Naval Blockade:

On April 13, Trump resorted to imposing a naval blockade on Iranian ships to bring its economy to its knees. However, intelligence reports confirm that this blockade needs at least 3 to 4 months to exert real pressure—time that Trump does not have.

10. Depletion of Global Energy Security:

The mutual blockade harms the world daily; inflation in the US has reached 3.8% (the highest in years), and The Wall Street Journal warns: "The world is currently consuming its final oil safety net."

11. The Bill for Opening the Strait of Hormuz by Force:

The author of the article asks retired Admiral James Stavridis (former NATO Commander) what the US needs to open the Strait of Hormuz militarily, and he replies shockingly:

"It requires: an aircraft carrier with 80 fighter jets, 12 missile destroyers, 6 minesweepers, 75 Air Force aircraft, 35 helicopters, and between 5,000 to 10,000 ground troops on the Iranian coast... Oh my god!"

12. The Danger of a Single Drone:

Even if the US mobilizes all that force, the ships will be in narrow waters with very short response times against Iranian attacks. A single Iranian drone hitting an oil tanker is enough to derail the entire operation.

13. Conclusion:

Contrary to what Trump claims, he has not achieved any "complete military victory" and will not achieve one. The sooner he accepts this reality, the better it will be for him.

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