UAE-backed forces seize South Yemen, raising possibility of independence

The Southern Transitional Council (STC), backed by the United Arab Emirates, has now taken control of all eight southern provinces — a major setback for the UAE’s regional rival, Saudi Arabia.

The UAE-backed military leadership in South Yemen announced that it had seized the entire south — a shift that opens the possibility of declaring independence, potentially restoring Yemen to two states for the first time since 1990.

According to the report, around 10,000 STC fighters entered the oil-rich Hadramawt province last week, followed by Al-Mahra — the sparsely populated province on the border with Oman that had not previously been under STC control.

These victories mark the first time the STC has achieved full control over all provinces that historically constituted “South Yemen.”

In response, the Riyadh-led coalition — previously the most prominent external actor in Yemen — withdrew its forces from the presidential palace in the southern capital Aden, as well as from the airport. This shift indicates that the forces supporting the internationally recognized government have been defeated, at least temporarily.

However, an immediate declaration of statehood by the STC would be a risky step, given the experiences of other regions that pursued secession but later struggled with diplomatic recognition, such as Western Sahara.

It is therefore more likely that the STC will, in the medium term, seek a referendum on separation from the north rather than an immediate declaration of independence. The future of this path depends heavily on the decision of its patron — the UAE.

Since the Houthis seized the capital Sana’a in 2015, the south has been governed by a fragile political alliance that included the Saudi-backed Islah Party (led by President Rashad al-Alimi) and the UAE-backed STC (led by STC chief Aidarous al-Zubaidi).

Despite their partnership under the “Presidential Leadership Council,” the STC maintained stronger military forces. After the Saudi withdrawal to Riyadh, President al-Alimi met with diplomats from France, Britain, and the United States, urging the STC to return to barracks. Yet the STC appears to have subsequently taken control of Yemen’s largest oil company, PetroMasila — a move that strengthens its position in determining the country’s future.

Western diplomats and the United Nations have long opposed dividing Yemen into two states, instead advocating a federal solution that would include both the Houthis and southern forces.

There are indications that the STC may offer two provinces outside traditional South Yemen — Taiz and Marib — a “protected” status to ensure they do not fall into Houthi hands, should they not explicitly join the “southern state.”

A researcher at the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies said: “This may be the most important turning point in Yemen’s history since Sana’a fell to the Houthis in 2015. It has the potential to reshape local and regional alliances, and could even draw the UAE into conflict with Saudi Arabia.” She added that the STC would be in a strong position to demand southern autonomy if negotiations begin, while Saudi Arabia would face serious concerns over its border security, especially given past Houthi attacks on its territory.

Finally, the report notes that some observers suspect the STC is acting on a “signal” from the UAE — possibly in response to Riyadh’s move to ask the former U.S. president to intervene in the war in Sudan, which angered the UAE and prompted it to reshuffle its cards in Yemen.

A Saudi delegation remains in Hadramawt, attempting to contain the fallout, amid intense pressure from Riyadh to halt what it has described as chaos.