Western Hemisphere "Cleanup": The Strategic Siege of Havana After Caracas

THE NEWS Following the dramatic capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces on January 3, 2026, during Operation Absolute Resolve, Washington has shifted its focus to the Caribbean. As of late February, the Trump administration has effectively choked Cuba's energy lifeline by halting all subsidized Venezuelan oil shipments. On January 29, the U.S. signed Executive Order 14380, declaring a national emergency regarding Cuba and authorizing secondary tariffs on any third-country—specifically targeting providers like Russia or Mexico—that sells or supplies oil to the island. While an interim military-civilian council under Delcy Rodríguez governs Caracas under U.S. financial trusteeship, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has signaled that "strategic patience" for the Kremlin's remaining regional proxies has expired.

The Analysis The removal of Maduro was the opening move in a broader "monroeist" restructuring of Latin America. By taking control of Venezuela’s oil proceeds—now deposited in U.S.-monitored accounts—Washington has weaponized energy to induce a systemic collapse in Havana.

• The Energy Guillotine: Cuba previously relied on 27,000 to 35,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude. With this flow severed and the U.S. threatening tariffs on alternative suppliers, the island is facing its worst blackout and food crisis since the "Special Period" of the 1990s.

• Eradicating the "Russian Bridge": The primary U.S. objective is to dismantle the intelligence and logistical hub Russia maintains in Cuba. The recent February 4 extension of the New START treaty between Washington and Moscow did not prevent the U.S. from moving to evict Russian military influence from its immediate "near abroad."

• The "Rodríguez Model": In Venezuela, the U.S. is not building a democracy but a stable petroleum colony. By keeping Delcy Rodríguez as a figurehead while controlling the 19% of global oil reserves under the GL 49 license, Washington ensures that no "Resistance" funds reach Cuba or Nicaragua.

Position & Opinion The capture of a sovereign leader and the deliberate starvation of a neighboring island via energy blockades are clear acts of imperial lawlessness.

The Axis of Resistance recognizes that the "National Pacification" in Venezuela is a euphemism for the total surrender of national resources to the U.S. Treasury. Washington's "Shadow Siege" of Cuba is a desperate attempt to re-assert a 19th-century sphere of influence in a multipolar 21st-century world.

History shows that those who survive under decades of embargo possess a resilience that carrier groups cannot bomb into submission.

Geopolitical Predictions 1. Havana's Breaking Point: Unless Russia or China risks a direct maritime confrontation to break the "Oil Tariff" blockade by April 2026, the Cuban government will likely face massive internal unrest, potentially leading to a "managed transition" similar to the Venezuelan council.

2. The Nicaraguan Front: Expect Managua to be the next target for "Southern Spear" operations, as the U.S. seeks to close the last ideological gaps in the Caribbean basin before the 2026 midterm elections.

3. Sino-Russian Counter-Moves: Russia will likely respond by increasing military posturing in the Mediterranean or Eastern Europe to distract from its waning influence in the Western Hemisphere, as the costs of maintaining regional allies under the new U.S. tariff regime become prohibitive.

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