Western Hemisphere "Cleanup": The Strategic Siege of Havana After Caracas

THE NEWS

Following the dramatic capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces on January 3, 2026, during Operation Absolute Resolve, Washington has shifted its focus to the Caribbean. As of late February, the Trump administration has effectively choked Cuba's energy lifeline by halting all subsidized Venezuelan oil shipments. On January 29, the U.S. signed Executive Order 14380, declaring a national emergency regarding Cuba and authorizing secondary tariffs on any third-country—specifically targeting providers like Russia or Mexico—that sells or supplies oil to the island. While an interim military-civilian council under Delcy Rodríguez governs Caracas under U.S. financial trusteeship, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has signaled that "strategic patience" for the Kremlin's remaining regional proxies has expired.

The Analysis

The removal of Maduro was the opening move in a broader "monroeist" restructuring of Latin America. By taking control of Venezuela’s oil proceeds—now deposited in U.S.-monitored accounts—Washington has weaponized energy to induce a systemic collapse in Havana.

• The Energy Guillotine: Cuba previously relied on 27,000 to 35,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude. With this flow severed and the U.S. threatening tariffs on alternative suppliers, the island is facing its worst blackout and food crisis since the "Special Period" of the 1990s.

• Eradicating the "Russian Bridge": The primary U.S. objective is to dismantle the intelligence and logistical hub Russia maintains in Cuba. The recent February 4 extension of the New START treaty between Washington and Moscow did not prevent the U.S. from moving to evict Russian military influence from its immediate "near abroad."

• The "Rodríguez Model": In Venezuela, the U.S. is not building a democracy but a stable petroleum colony. By keeping Delcy Rodríguez as a figurehead while controlling the 19% of global oil reserves under the GL 49 license, Washington ensures that no "Resistance" funds reach Cuba or Nicaragua.

Position & Opinion

The capture of a sovereign leader and the deliberate starvation of a neighboring island via energy blockades are clear acts of imperial lawlessness.

The Axis of Resistance recognizes that the "National Pacification" in Venezuela is a euphemism for the total surrender of national resources to the U.S. Treasury. Washington's "Shadow Siege" of Cuba is a desperate attempt to re-assert a 19th-century sphere of influence in a multipolar 21st-century world.

History shows that those who survive under decades of embargo possess a resilience that carrier groups cannot bomb into submission.

Geopolitical Predictions

1. Havana's Breaking Point: Unless Russia or China risks a direct maritime confrontation to break the "Oil Tariff" blockade by April 2026, the Cuban government will likely face massive internal unrest, potentially leading to a "managed transition" similar to the Venezuelan council.

2. The Nicaraguan Front: Expect Managua to be the next target for "Southern Spear" operations, as the U.S. seeks to close the last ideological gaps in the Caribbean basin before the 2026 midterm elections.

3. Sino-Russian Counter-Moves: Russia will likely respond by increasing military posturing in the Mediterranean or Eastern Europe to distract from its waning influence in the Western Hemisphere, as the costs of maintaining regional allies under the new U.S. tariff regime become prohibitive.

#Venezuela2026 #CubaBlockade #OperationAbsoluteResolve #MonroeDoctrine #AxisOfResistance #LatinAmericaGeopolitics #EndofHegemony

EU Foreign Affairs Council Convenes on Ukraine and Gaza: Rhetoric Versus Leverage

The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets today the 23rd , February 2026 , to address two escalating fronts: the war in Ukraine — where European military and financial commitments to Kyiv have reached tens of billions of euros since 2022 — and the deteriorating security and humanitarian situation in Gaza and the West Bank amid ongoing Israeli military operations.

The contrast is stark. Since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, the EU has implemented sweeping sanctions packages against Russia and expanded arms deliveries. In the Palestinian arena, however, European responses have largely centered on statements of concern, despite repeated UN reporting on humanitarian collapse in Gaza and rising tensions in the West Bank.

Strategically, this reflects structural constraints. The EU’s security architecture remains intertwined with NATO and closely aligned with U.S. policy priorities. In Ukraine, Europe sustains a long-war containment framework. In Palestine, it stops short of deploying meaningful economic or diplomatic pressure.

The result is a credibility gap. A power that uses sanctions decisively in Eastern Europe but hesitates in the Levant weakens its claim to normative consistency.

Outlook: Continued military and financial backing for Kyiv is highly likely. On Gaza and the West Bank, expect reaffirmations of a two-state formula without enforcement mechanisms. Unless regional deterrence equations shift, Europe will remain a secondary actor operating within U.S.-defined parameters.

#EuropeanUnion #UkraineWar #Gaza #WestBank #Geopolitics #ResistanceAxis