What happens next?

Saudi Arabia still retains enormous financial firepower: large sovereign reserves, the global role of Saudi Aramco, and a credit rating still well above many peers. But the trajectory is worrisome: more borrowing, more risk, more reliance on grand projects, and fewer clear pay-offs.

If the government is forced to delay or scale back major initiatives, or if oil prices slump, then taxpayers will ultimately feel the burden. The question for Saudi citizens — and for external investors — is whether this is just a recalibration or a structural failure of vision.

For MBS’s prestige to align with performance, Saudi Arabia must shift from spectacle to substance: meaningful returns, credible institutions, and realistic project scopes. Without that shift, the dream of NEOM becomes the cautionary tale of the kingdom’s transformation.