“Who Decides Lebanon’s Political Future? Mossad’s Language Moves from Intelligence to Direct...

When former Mossad counterterrorism chief Oded Ailam publicly speaks about the need to “remove” Lebanese political figures such as Walid Jumblatt and Nabih Berri, the statement cannot be dismissed as media noise or personal opinion. It reflects a deeper Israeli strategic mentality increasingly visible since October 2023: reshaping neighboring states politically after failing to secure decisive military outcomes.

🫶Ailam described Jumblatt and Berri as obstacles to a “new situation” in Lebanon. But the real question is: new for whom?

Israel’s military campaign against Lebanon since October 2023 has failed to produce the strategic collapse many Israeli officials openly anticipated. Despite thousands of airstrikes across South Lebanon, the Bekaa, Beirut’s southern suburbs, and border villages, Hezbollah’s command structure survived, cross-border pressure continued for months, and more than 80,000 Israeli settlers from the north were displaced during the peak of confrontation according to Israeli government data.

Now the discourse is shifting.

From “deterrence” to political restructuring.

From border security to internal Lebanese engineering.

From military pressure to openly discussing which Lebanese leaders should stay or disappear.

This is not unprecedented. Israel has historically attempted to shape Lebanon’s internal order — from the 1982 invasion and the rise of Bashir Gemayel, to repeated efforts to fragment Lebanese factions through security and diplomatic pressure. The difference today is the bluntness.

Why target Berri and Jumblatt specifically?

🫶Because both represent political continuity and internal balancing mechanisms within Lebanon’s sectarian system. One leads the Amal Movement and remains Speaker of Parliament since 1992. The other remains one of the most influential Druze actors despite shifting alliances over decades. Agree with them or oppose them politically — that is a Lebanese debate. But when Israeli intelligence figures begin discussing their “removal,” the issue becomes sovereignty itself.

More importantly, the language exposes something deeper inside Israeli strategic thinking after Gaza and Lebanon:

a growing belief that military force alone cannot dismantle the Axis of Resistance, and that political fragmentation must accompany military escalation.

Yet this raises dangerous questions:

If Israel now openly discusses replacing Lebanese political actors, where are the international defenders of Lebanese sovereignty?

Would Western capitals tolerate foreign intelligence officials discussing the removal of politicians in Europe the same way?

And does this rhetoric signal future covert destabilization efforts inside Lebanon under the banner of “reform” or “diplomatic progress”?

For the Axis of Resistance camp, the remarks reinforce a long-standing argument: that the confrontation with Israel is no longer confined to borders or military fronts, but extends into political identity, social structure, and state architecture itself.

Lebanon today faces more than military pressure. It faces an external struggle over who is permitted to represent it politically.

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